Environmental changes in biodiversity hotspot ecosystems of
South Ecuador: RESPonse and feedback effECTs (FOR2730)

Abstract:

Sustainable intensification of agricultural lands might reconcile the conservation of tropical forest with food production,but in-depth assessments considering uncertainty and extreme values are missing. Uncertainty prohibits mapping probabilities to potential future states or ranking these states in terms of their likelihood. This in turn hampers the assessment of possible decision outcomes. Here, we use simulations to investigate how uncertainty may influence the social acceptability of alternative land-use strategies to halt tropical deforestation (including sustainable intensification), based on indicators representing farmer satisfaction. The results show how extreme values (worst values) for indicators of farmer satisfaction may undermine the adoption of sustainable intensification. We demonstrate that a pure forest conservation strategy leads to lower food production, but outperforms a sustainable intensification strategy that maintains food security. Pure forest conservation performed better, i.e., could secure higher farmer satisfaction, than sustainable intensification across a range of indicator groups. This suggests strong barriers to achieving sustainable intensification. Using agricultural subsidies breaks the dominance of pure forest conservation by enhancing the economic returns of sustainable intensification. We discuss the importance of access to labor and farmers’ preferences for the use of already cleared lands, which achieved the worst values under sustainable intensification and conclude that any assessment of land-use strategies requires careful consideration of uncertainty and extreme values.

Abstract:

In 201 3, the “Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Monitoring and Research in South Ecuador” (www.TropicalMountainForest.org) was launched as a knowledge transfer program in the biodiversity hotspot of the southern Ecuadorian Andes, jointly funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG) and Ecuadorian non-university partners. One of the overall aims of the transdisciplinary program is to design science-directed recommendations for an ecologically sustainable, economically profitable and socially compatible use of the mainly rural land. The second major goal of the program is the development of functional indicators that are crucial for the monitoring of impacts of environmental change on the ecosystem and its functions. They encompass abiotic, abiotic-biotic and biotic-biotic interrelations, and are sensitive - though to different extent - to subtle changes in the environment. Therefore, it is not only the interaction per se, which has to be examined. In addition to that the quantification of the response to certain environmental stressors is needed. Representing the fundament of ecosystem functioning, biodiversity as such or certain functional taxa can be monitored for an assessment of the ecosystem’s state. Important further criteria for the selection of an indicator are general applicability, easiness of handling and stability against pitfalls. This book “Landscape Restoration, Sustainable Use and Cross-scale Monitoring of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functions: A Science-directed Approach for South Ecuador” presents in its first part a compilation of sustainable land use concepts that have been proven for application in the Provinces Loja and Zamora Chinchipe and beyond, given comparable environmental conditions. The second part describes functional indicators as well as their development, monitoring and application. Both parts start with introductory chapters on the major aims of the respective transdisciplinary program, followed by contributions showing how land use concepts can be used to achieve sustainable management and ecosystem services, as well as how functional indicators can be used to assess and monitor the stability of biodiversity and ecosystem functions. It should be stressed that this book has not the aim to present only a scientific summary of the developed systems. Instead, it targets on stakeholders as our non-university partners and beyond which are in charge of environmental planning and ecosystem function surveillance in Ecuador. In the manner of a technical handbook, it gives a comprehensible introduction to the land use option or the indicator, followed by hints how to apply, implement and assess the developed systems. The book is and was complementing our three pillars of capacity building which also includes stakeholder workshops on the developed land use options and indicators, and demonstration plots in the field. With this book the authors highly acknowledge the generous funding of the research by the German Science Foundation (DFG) and the logistic, administrative and practical support by the foundation Naturaleza y Cultura Internacional (Loja and Del Mar). Such research requires also fruitful collaboration with local academic institutions, the Universidad Tecnica Particular de Loja, the Universidad Nacional de Loja, the Universidad de Cuenca, the Universidad de Azuay, and the local weather service INAMHI. These partnerships were a great experience in capacity building on both sides, as evidenced by a number of academic degrees obtained and by numerous joint publications. The authors are also grateful for the support of our nonuniversity research partners beyond NCI, namely ETAPA EP (Empresa Pública Municipal de Telecomunicaciones, Agua potable, lcantarillado y Saneamiento de Cuenca- Ecuador), the Gobierno Municipal de Zamora and the regional water fund FORAGUA (Fondo Regional del Agua). Further, sincere thanks are owed to the Ecuadorian Ministry of the Environment (MAE) for permission to conduct research in South Ecuador. The Editors

Abstract:

High landscape diversity is assumed to increase the number and level of ecosystem services. However, the interactions between ecosystem service provision, disturbance and landscape composition are poorly understood. Here we present a novel approach to include uncertainty in the optimization of land allocation for improving the provision of multiple ecosystem services. We refer to the rehabilitation of abandoned agricultural lands in Ecuador including two types of both afforestation and pasture rehabilitation, together with a succession option. Our results show that high compositional landscape diversity supports multiple ecosystem services (multifunction effect). This implicitly provides a buffer against uncertainty. Our work shows that active integration of uncertainty is only important when optimizing single or highly correlated ecosystem services and that the multifunction effect on landscape diversity is stronger than the uncertainty effect. This is an important insight to support a land-use planning based on ecosystem services.

Abstract:

The theory of portfolio selection has often been applied to help improving decisions on the environment. The information required to apply this theory includes data on covariance of the uncertain returns between all combinations of the economic options and normally distributed returns. As it may be problematic to fulfil all data requirements and assumptions, the paper proposes a variant of robust portfolio optimization as an alternative. It considers future uncer-tainties in a non-stochastic fashion by means of possible deviations from the nominal return of land-use alternatives. The maximization of the economic return of the land-use portfolio is conditional to meeting an inclusive set of constraints. These demand that the same, whenever possible high, proportion of a required return threshold is achieved by means of the robust solution for each deviation scenario considered. The paper compares the land-use portfolios derived non-stochastically with portfolios generated by classical stochastic mean-variance op-timization. Based on data for eight agricultural crops typical for the Ecuadorian lowlands the results show that, depending on the deviation scenario assumed, the robust portfolios show a greater Shannon index compared to classical portfolios. For the same standard deviation of returns (derived through the classical sum of all covariances) the robust portfolios show no more than 2-5% loss in economic return in most cases. Occasionally, the loss has been higher, up to 20%. In this case the Shannon index was about 2.5 times higher compared with that of the conventional portfolio. The highly diverse portfolio achieved a much better protection against low relative performance. The results obtained show that the non-stochastic derivation of land-use portfolios is a good alternative to the classical stochastic model, whenever eco-nomic information is scarce.

Abstract:

Conflicts between satisfying the growing global demand for food and energy and simultaneously preserving natural ecosystems have spurred renewed debate about how to optimise future land use. This study reviews the role of forests and forest management within these proposed land-use strategies and reveals that discussions about future management of forest and agricultural lands take place largely exclusive of one another. Based on these results, a land-use concept is proposed in which sustainable agricultural intensification is paired with land-use diversification as a risk reduction strategy and complemented by productive restoration and compensation payments for forest conservation. Improving afforestation and agroforestry practices on degraded lands and investigating effects of diversification on the landscape scale are identified as important objectives for future interdisciplinary research. Considering forests as part of a comprehensive land-use portfolio will be vital in order to help strengthen links and ease conflicts between forest and agricultural land uses.

Abstract:

This paper analyses the effectiveness and distributional effects of payments to avoid tropical deforestation. As a first aspect, we investigated whether or not expected payments for avoided deforestation would be acceptable for tropical farmers in Southern Ecuador, with the study area located directly adjacent to the Podocarpus National Park. Second, we explored possible distributional effects resulting from voluntary or mandatory remuneration schemes to avoid deforestation. Finally, a productive sustainable land use was conceptualised to be combined with payments for avoided deforestation to avoid leakage (i.e. deforestation processes elsewhere when avoided at a given farm). Farm level land use scenarios with ("business as usual") and without deforestation ("conservation strategy") were compared. Compensation per Mg Carbon (C) that is not emitted into the atmosphere under the "conservation strategy" was derived to achieve a monetary land net present value (NPV, sum of discounted future net revenues) equal to the NPV obtained under "business as usual". Avoided carbon emissions were computed from above ground C in tropical forests of the project area and supplemented by information on soil carbon from another study. Economic data for cattle pasturing were obtained from a farm survey (130 households) to investigate distributional effects. To derive sustainable land use concepts, a risk sensitive bioeconomic farm model was used that considered effects of risk compensation when combining pasture with reforestation of abandoned farm lands and selective logging of natural forests. The results showed that only a few farmers (20 out of 130) would possibly accept a compensation price of US$ 10 per Mg avoided C emission, a C-compensation that is believed by other authors to reduce deforestation by 65%. Rather a compensation of around US$ 25 per Mg C was necessary to address compensation requirements of farmers who hold 50% of the tropical forest area in our study. The implementation of a voluntary remuneration scheme for avoided deforestation would not introduce systematic distributional effects (such as that only the biggest farmers would benefit from compensation), while a mandatory and enforced ban on deforestation coupled with a "fair" compensation payment equal to mean compensation requirements may lead to undesirable effects for many farmers. Finally, we demonstrate a mixed sustainable land use concept that depended on cheap credits for reforestation of abandoned pasture lands. This concept was able to stop farm level deforestation and to enlarge the economic value of farms through various combined land use options (agricultural and forestry options). The combination of land uses led to risk compensatory effects and a more efficient land use by reintegrating unproductive abandoned areas back into the economical process. In our conclusion a combination of payments for avoided deforestation along with productive land use concepts provided a viable solution for tropical forest conservation.