Environmental changes in biodiversity hotspot ecosystems of
South Ecuador: RESPonse and feedback effECTs (FOR2730)

Abstract:

Ensuring the integrity of the world’s forests is indispensable for mitigating climate change, combatting biodiversity loss, and protecting the livelihoods of rural communities. While many strategies have been developed to address deforestation across different geographic scales, measuring their impact against a fluctuating background of market-driven forest loss is notoriously challenging. In this article, we (1) asses deforestation in Ecuador using a dynamic, counterfactual baseline that excludes non-market factors, (2) identify periods of reduced and excess deforestation, and (3) assess the economic consequences of associated CO2 emissions using the social cost of carbon metric. We construct a counterfactual market-forces-only reference scenario by simulating heterogeneous profit-seeking agents making satisficing land-use allocation decisions under uncertainty. The model simulates a reference scenario for 2001–2022, a period encompassing dollarization, the beginning of a constitution granting inalienable rights to nature, and the launch of the largest payments for ecosystem services program in Ecuador’s history. On this period, total deforestation was approximately 20% lower than expected in a market-forces-only scenario (9540 vs.12,000 km2). The largest deviation occurred in 2001–2009, when observed deforestation was 43.6% lower than expected (3720 vs 6590 km2). From 2010 onwards, deforestation appears to be market-driven. We assess the economic value of avoided CO2 emissions at US $5.7 billion if the reduction is permanent, or US $3.1 billion considering a 1% risk of loss from 2022 onwards. We discuss contributing factors that likely shaped periods of reduced and excess deforestation and stress the need to use realistic baselines.

Abstract:

Sustainable intensification of agricultural lands might reconcile the conservation of tropical forest with food production,but in-depth assessments considering uncertainty and extreme values are missing. Uncertainty prohibits mapping probabilities to potential future states or ranking these states in terms of their likelihood. This in turn hampers the assessment of possible decision outcomes. Here, we use simulations to investigate how uncertainty may influence the social acceptability of alternative land-use strategies to halt tropical deforestation (including sustainable intensification), based on indicators representing farmer satisfaction. The results show how extreme values (worst values) for indicators of farmer satisfaction may undermine the adoption of sustainable intensification. We demonstrate that a pure forest conservation strategy leads to lower food production, but outperforms a sustainable intensification strategy that maintains food security. Pure forest conservation performed better, i.e., could secure higher farmer satisfaction, than sustainable intensification across a range of indicator groups. This suggests strong barriers to achieving sustainable intensification. Using agricultural subsidies breaks the dominance of pure forest conservation by enhancing the economic returns of sustainable intensification. We discuss the importance of access to labor and farmers’ preferences for the use of already cleared lands, which achieved the worst values under sustainable intensification and conclude that any assessment of land-use strategies requires careful consideration of uncertainty and extreme values.

Abstract:

Background: Since the 1990’s, afforestation programs in the páramo have been implemented to offset carbon emissions through carbon sequestration, mainly using pine plantations. However, several studies have indicated that after the establishment of pine plantations in grasslands, there is an alteration of carbon pools including a decrease of the soil organic carbon (SOC) pool. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of the establishment of pine plantations on the carbon stocks in different altitudes of the páramo ecosystem of South Ecuador. Results: At seven locations within an elevational gradient from 2780 to 3760 m a.s.l., we measured and compared carbon stocks of three types of land use: natural grassland, grazed páramo, and Pinus patula Schlltdl. & Cham. plantation sites. For a more accurate estimation of pine tree carbon, we developed our own allometric equations. There were significant (p < 0.05) differences between the amounts of carbon stored in the carbon pools aboveground and belowground for the three types of land use. In most of the locations, pine plantations revealed the highest amounts of aboveground and belowground carbon (55.4 and 6.9 tC/ha) followed by natural grassland (23.1 and 2.7 tC/ha) and grazed páramo sites (9.1 and 1.5 tC/ha). Concerning the SOC pools, most of the locations revealed significant lower values of plantations’ SOC in comparison to natural grassland and grazed páramo sites. Higher elevation was associated with lower amounts of pines’ biomass. Conclusions: Even though plantations store high amounts of carbon, natural páramo grassland can also store substantial amounts above and belowground, without negatively affecting the soils and putting other páramo ecosystem services at risk. Consequently, plans for afforestation in the páramo should be assessed case by case, considering not only the limiting factor of elevation, but also the site quality especially affected by the type of previous land use.

Abstract:

Tropical mountain ecosystems are threatened by climate and land-use changes. Their diversity and complexity make projec- tions how they respond to environmental changes challenging. A suitable way are trait-based approaches, by distinguishing between response traits that determine the resistance of species to environmental changes and efect traits that are relevant for species’ interactions, biotic processes, and ecosystem functions. The combination of those approaches with land surface models (LSM) linking the functional community composition to ecosystem functions provides new ways to project the response of ecosystems to environmental changes. With the interdisciplinary project RESPECT, we propose a research framework that uses a trait-based response-efect-framework (REF) to quantify relationships between abiotic conditions, the diversity of functional traits in communities, and associated biotic processes, informing a biodiversity-LSM. We apply the framework to a megadiverse tropical mountain forest. We use a plot design along an elevation and a land-use gradient to collect data on abiotic drivers, functional traits, and biotic processes. We integrate these data to build the biodiversity- LSM and illustrate how to test the model. REF results show that aboveground biomass production is not directly related to changing climatic conditions, but indirectly through associated changes in functional traits. Herbivory is directly related to changing abiotic conditions. The biodiversity-LSM informed by local functional trait and soil data improved the simulation of biomass production substantially. We conclude that local data, also derived from previous projects (platform Ecuador), are key elements of the research framework. We specify essential datasets to apply this framework to other mountain ecosystems.

Abstract:

Many forests restoration programs and efforts depend on seeds. Particularly in the Andes, further information regarding seed germination requirements and seed storage behavior is necessary. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of storage conditions on the germination percentage, the viability and the coefficient of velocity of germination for seeds of three native tree species (Cedrela montana, Weinmannia fagaroides and Oreocallis grandiflora). Under controlled conditions, the seeds were exposed to three levels of seed moisture content and storage temperatures (5 °C, 10 °C and room temperature at approx. 19 °C) for 3, 6 and 12 months. The results showed that at 3–6 months of seed storage under temperatures of 5 and 10 °C, the seeds had a high percentage of germination, viability and germination speed for C. montana and W. fagaroides compared to those stored at room temperature. At 12 months of storage, there was a marked reduction in seed germination in all treatments for both species. Furthermore, the seed germination and viability of O. grandiflora was not influenced by any of the above storage treatments. However, at the end of the experiment a slight decrease was observed, hence this species might be tolerant to medium- and long-term storage conditions. Though limited to just three co-occurring species, the study provided insight into the variability in responses to storage, with preliminary indications of appropriate storage conditions to maximize storability of seeds for restoration programs. Importantly, the study demonstrated the need for empirical testing of storage responses (temperature and duration) of seeds before subjecting untested species to a particular storage regime.

Abstract:

Tropical and subtropical dry forests make up the world’s largest terrestrial ecosystem. However, these forests have been used to establish several productive activities, such as growing crops, rearing livestock, and using the forest resources, due to their ease of access and climatic conditions, which has led to this ecosystem becoming highly threatened. Therefore, this research assessed the effects of anthropogenic pressures and a number of abiotic variables on natural regeneration in dry forests in the Tumbesian region by addressing three research questions: (a) What is the status of natural regeneration in terms of abundance and diversity? (b) Does livestock grazing and the anthropogenic pressure affect the abundance and diversity of natural regeneration? (c) Does seasonality or grazing have the greatest influence on the regeneration dynamics? Data were obtained from 72 samples (36 fenced and 36 unfenced) during five surveys spanning a 2-year period, and the seedling abundance, mortality, recruitment, species richness and diversity were evaluated using linear mixed models. Natural regeneration was most positively affected by rainy season precipitation, but soil conditions also played an important role. Short-term fences had a major effect on reducing mortality but did not improve the abundance or diversity, whereas cattle grazing significantly affected the abundance of seedlings.

Abstract:

The dry forest of southern Ecuador and northern Perú (called the Tumbesian region) is known for its high diversity, endemism, and healthy conservation state. Nevertheless, the forest is exposed to many threats linked with human activities. To understand the effects of these threats, which have not been appropriately assessed, we pose two questions: (a) What are the diversity and structural situations of the forest? (b) Are anthropogenic activities affecting the composition and structure of the forest? The assessed factors were species richness, diversity, species similarity, abundance, and density. Forest information was obtained from 72 plots (total area 25.92 ha) randomly placed to cover a wide range of stand densities (from 200 to 1100 m a.s.l.). After constructing linear mixed models and selecting the most influential one, we determined the individual influences of 12 predictors. The human pressure index (HPI) was the most negative predictor of forest health, and annual precipitation was the most important abiotic predictor of good health conditions. Livestock grazing did not significantly change the diversity and structure of mature forest. The mean annual temperature and stoniness influenced only the basal area and number of individuals, respectively. The species composition in our study area was not affected by the HPI, but was strongly predicted by annual precipitation.

Abstract:

Few studies have analysed the effect of silvicultural treatments on tree growth in tropical montane forests (TMF). These forests have strong topographic gradients, which influence growth rates and can potentially interact with silvicultural treatments. The present study investigated the relative effects of silvicultural treatments and topography on growth rates at the tree level in a TMF. For this, we combined two distinct data sources: (1) field data from a silvicultural experiment in the Andes of southern Ecuador where liberation thinnings, i.e. the removal of the strongest crown competitors, were applied to potential crop trees (PCT) in 2004; and (2) topographic variables obtained from a high-resolution digital terrain model created from an airborne LIDAR survey. We fitted all data in a single linear mixed-effect model. Based on monitoring data from 174 released and 200 reference PCTs of 8 timber species, we calculated periodic annual increment (PAI) in DBH 6 years after the silvicultural treatment as our outcome variable. As topographic predictors, we used elevation and a topographic position index. To control for the by-species growth variability we included random intercepts for species and random slopes for the effect of treatment on species in our model. PAI was significantly influenced by the topographic predictors. Over the elevational gradient, growth rates declined on average by 0.73 mm a−1 per 100 m increase in elevation. For the topographic position, PCTs in valleys had an average PAI of 2.02 mm a−1 compared to 1.04 mm a−1 on ridges. The effect of the silvicultural treatment across all species was only marginally significant, but its effect size was nevertheless within the range, but at the lower end of values reported for other tropical forest ecosystems (reference trees: 1.35 mm a−1; released trees: 1.60 mm a−1). Between species, baseline growth rates as well as the treatment effect varied considerably. Best linear unbiased predictions of species effects suggested that 5 species responded positively to the silvicultural treatment, whereas 3 species showed no treatment effect. Overall, tree growth varied substantially as indicated by the large residual variance that remained unaccounted for in the model. Our findings indicate that positive effects of silvicultural treatments in TMF are likely to exist, but that they are possibly obfuscated by strong topographical gradients and large between-tree growth variability. Overall, our results suggest that “broad-brush” management prescriptions are not suited for sustainable forest management of TMF. Instead, granular and spatially explicit prescriptions that take the strong impact of topography on diameter growth as well as species-specific responses to silvicultural treatments into account should be favoured.

Abstract:

Background: The impact of selective thinning on forest diversity has been extensively studied in temperate and boreal regions. However, in the tropics, knowledge is still poor regarding the impacts of this silvicultural treatment on functional diversity, especially in tropical mountain forests, which are considered to be highly biodiverse ecosystems and also endangered by human activities. By evaluating the changes on functional diversity by using different indicators, hypothesizing that selective thinning significantly affects (directly or indirectly) tropical mountain forests, this work promotes sustainable ecosystem use. Methods: A total of 52 permanent plots of 2500 m2 each were installed in a primary mountain forest in the San Francisco Biological Reserve to assess the impact of this silvicultural treatment. Selective thinning can be defined as a controlled process, in which trees that compete with ecologically and/or valuable timber species are progressively removed to stimulate the development of profitable ones, called potential crop trees (PCT). In doing so, the best specimens remain in the forest stand until their final harvest. After PCT selection, 30 plots were chosen for the intervention, while 22 plots served as control plots. The thinning intensity fluctuated between 4 and 56 trees ha−1 (average 18.8 ± 12.1 stems ha−1). Functional Diversity (FD) indices, including the community weighted mean (CWM), were determined based on six traits using the FD package implemented in R software. The difference between initial and final conditions of functional richness (FRic), functional divergence (FDiv), functional evenness (FEve), functional dispersion (FDis), and Rao quadratic entropy (RaoQ) was modeled using linear mixed models (LMM). As fixed factors, we used all the predictors inherent to structural and ecological forest conditions before and after the selective thinning and as a random variable, we used the membership to nested sampling units. Results: Functional Richness (FRic) showed significant changes after selective thinning, the other indexes (FEve, FDis, FDiv, RaoQ) were only influenced by predictors related to ecological conditions and characteristics of the community.

Abstract:

Abstract: Research Highlights: This study determined that treatment “release from competitors” causes different reactions in selected timber species respective to diametrical growth, in which the initial size of the tree (diametric class) is important. Also, the growth habit and phenological traits (defoliation) of the species must be considered, which may have an influence on growth after release. Background and Objectives: The objective of the study was to analyze the diametric growth of nine timber species after their release to answer the following questions: (i) Can the diametric growth of the selected timber species be increased by release? (ii) Does the release cause different responses among the tree species? (iii) Are other factors important, such as the initial diameter at breast height (DBH) or the general climate conditions? Materials and Methods: Four-hundred and eighty-eight trees belonging to nine timber species were selected and monitored over a three-year period. Release was applied to 197 trees, whereas 251 trees served as control trees to evaluate the response of diametrical growth. To determine the response of the trees, a linear mixed model (GLMM, R package: LMER4) was used, which was adjusted by a one-way ANOVA test. Results: All species showed a similar annual cycle respective to diametric increases, which is due to the per-humid climate in the area. Precipitation is secondary for the diametric growth because sufficient rainfall occurs throughout year. What is more important, however, are variations in temperature. However, the species responded differently to release. This is because the initial DBH and growth habit are more important factors. Therefore, the species could be classified into three specific groups: Positive, negative and no response to release. Conclusions: Species which prefer open sites responded positively to release, while shade tolerant species and species with pronounced phenological traits responded negatively. The initial DBH was also an important factor for diametric increases. This is because trees of class I (20 cm to 30 cm DBH) responded positively to the treatment, whereas for bigger or older individuals, the differences decreased or became negative.

Abstract:

Our knowledge about the structure and function of Andean forests at regional scales remains limited. Current initiatives to study forests over continental or global scales still have important geographical gaps, particularly in regions such as the tropical and subtropical Andes. In this study, we assessed patterns of structure and tree species diversity along ~ 4000 km of latitude and ~ 4000 m of elevation range in Andean forests. We used the Andean Forest Network (Red de Bosques Andinos, https://redbosques.condesan.org/) database which, at present, includes 491 forest plots (totaling 156.3 ha, ranging from 0.01 to 6 ha) representing a total of 86,964 identified tree stems � 10 cm diameter at breast height belonging to 2341 identified species, 584 genera and 133 botanical families. Tree stem density and basal area increases with elevation while species richness decreases. Stem density and species richness both decrease with latitude. Subtropical forests have distinct tree species composition compared to those in the tropical region. In addition, floristic similarity of subtropical plots is between 13 to 16% while similarity between tropical forest plots is between 3% to 9%. Overall, plots ~ 0.5-ha or larger may be preferred for describing patterns at regional scales in order to avoid plot size effects. We highlight the need to promote collaboration and capacity building among researchers in the Andean region (i.e., South-South cooperation) in order to generate and synthesize information at regional scale.

Abstract:

Abstract Conversion of tropical forests is among the primary causes of global environmental change. The loss of their important environmental services has prompted calls to integrate ecosystem services (ES) in addition to socio-economic objectives in decision-making. To test the effect of accounting for both ES and socio-economic objectives in land-use decisions, we develop a new dynamic approach to model deforestation scenarios for tropical mountain forests. We integrate multi-objective optimization of land allocation with an innovative approach to consider uncertainty spaces for each objective. These uncertainty spaces account for potential variability among decision-makers, who may have different expectations about the future. When optimizing only socio-economic objectives, the model continues the past trend in deforestation (1975–2015) in the projected land-use allocation (2015–2070). Based on indicators for biomass production, carbon storage, climate and water regulation, and soil quality, we show that considering multiple ES in addition to the socio-economic objectives has heterogeneous effects on land-use allocation. It saves some natural forest if the natural forest share is below 38%, and can stop deforestation once the natural forest share drops below 10%. For landscapes with high shares of forest (38%–80% in our study), accounting for multiple ES under high uncertainty of their indicators may, however, accelerate deforestation. For such multifunctional landscapes, two main effects prevail: (a) accelerated expansion of diversified non-natural areas to elevate the levels of the indicators and (b) increased landscape diversification to maintain multiple ES, reducing the proportion of natural forest. Only when accounting for vascular plant species richness as an explicit objective in the optimization, deforestation was consistently reduced. Aiming for multifunctional landscapes may therefore conflict with the aim of reducing deforestation, which we can quantify here for the first time. Our findings are relevant for identifying types of landscapes where this conflict may arise and to better align respective policies.

Abstract:

Seasonally dry forests in the neotropics are heavily threatened by a combination of human disturbances and climate change; however, the severity of these threats is seldom contrasted. This study aims to quantify and compare the effects of deforestation and climate change on the natural spatial ranges of 17 characteristic tree species of southern Ecuador dry deciduous forests, which are heavily fragmented and support high levels of endemism as part of the Tumbesian ecoregion. We used 660 plant records to generate species distribution models and land-cover data to project species ranges for two time frames: a simulated deforestation scenario from 2008 to 2014 with native forest to anthropogenic land-use conversion, and an extreme climate change scenario (CCSM4.0, RCP 8.5) for 2050, which assumed zero change from human activities. To assess both potential threats, we compared the estimated annual rates of species loss (i.e., range shifts) affecting each species. Deforestation loss for all species averaged approximately 71 km2/year, while potential climate-attributed loss was almost 21 km2/year. Moreover, annual area loss rates due to deforestation were significantly higher than those attributed to climate-change (P < 0.01). However, projections into the future scenario show evidence of diverging displacement patterns, indicating the potential formation of novel ecosystems, which is consistent with other species assemblage predictions as result of climate change. Furthermore, we provide recommendations for management and conservation, prioritizing the most threatened species such as Albizia multiflora, Ceiba trichistandra, and Cochlospermum vitifolium.

Abstract:

Forest site classification adapted to the respective site conditions is one prerequisite for sustainable silviculture. This work aims to initiate the forest site classification for pine plantations in the southern Andean region of Ecuador. Forest productivity, estimated by the dominant height of 20-year-old trees (DH20), was related to data from climate, topography, and soil using 23 plots installed in pine plantations in the province of Loja. Forest site productivity was classified as: low (class C: 13.4 m), middle (class B: 16.6 m), and high (Class A: 22.3 m). Strong determinants to differentiate the forest site classes were: the short to medium term available Ca and K stocks (organic layer + mineral soil standardized to a depth of 60 cm), soil acidity, the C:N ratio, clay and sand content, forest floor thickness, altitude, and slope. The lowest forest productivity (Class C) is mainly associated with the lowest short to medium term available K and Ca stocks. Whereas, in site classes with the highest forest productivity, pines could benefit from a more active microbial community releasing N and P, since the soil pH was about 1 unit less acidic. This is supported by the lowest forest floor thickness and the narrowest C:N ratio.

Abstract:

Uno de los aspectos importantes a considerarse en la producción eficiente de plántulas con fines de restauración es la calidad de semillas y su variabilidad. El objetivo de este estudio fue evaluar los parámetros de semillas de acuerdo con las reglas del “International Seed Testing Association” entre diferentes árboles madre o individuos de siete especies nativas (Cedrela montana, Morella pubescens, Inga acreana, Tabebuia chrysantha, Ocotea heterochroma, Oreocallis grandiflora y Myrcianthes rhopaloides) en dos bosques de montaña del sur del Ecuador. Estas especies fueron seleccionadas por la importancia ecológica, socioeconómica, y su gran potencial para la restauración. De un total de 35 árboles madre de todas las especies, se colectaron las semillas en sus respectivos periodos de fructificación, y en el laboratorio fueron analizados los siguientes parámetros: pureza, peso, contenido de humedad y germinación; adicionalmente se determinó el coeficiente de velocidad de germinación. Los resultados mostraron una similitud intraespecífica en cada especie para la mayoría de los parámetros; no obstante, el peso presentó alta variabilidad intraespecífica para todas las especies. El parámetro germinación obtuvo diferencias entre individuos para C. montana, T. chrysantha, O. heterochroma y M. rhopaloides. En cuanto a la velocidad de germinación, individuos de especies como O. grandiflora e I. acreana mostraron un alto coeficiente en contraste a los individuos de O. heterochroma y M. pubescens. La información generada en este estudio podría ser el primer paso en la formulación de pautas para la producción masiva de plántulas de especies nativas con fines de restauración.

Abstract:

Forest recovery on disturbed areas is of special significance in the Ecuadorian Andes, where deforestation is a serious problem. Natural diachronic succession was evaluated on three large plots or sites, differing in their land use and vegetation composition, one is dominated by grass species on an abandoned pasture (Pasture site), the other two are post-fire vegetation dominated by bracken (Bracken site) and various shrubs (Shrub site). Additionally, we assessed the effectiveness of manual removal of competitive herbaceous species to accelerate forest recovery. Monitoring was done in 2003, 2005 and 2007 on 48 subplots of 116 m2 each recording species richness and woody-species density. Results showed that the Pasture site demonstrated a competitive effect of exotic grasses on woody species recruitment with much lower species recruitment and density, suggesting serious inhibition of natural forest regeneration and an unclear successional trajectory. The Bracken and Shrub sites became significantly similar floristically and there is evidence for a marked facilitation of woody plant recruitment correlated with light availability on the ground. Both sites showed characteristics of classic succession, with Shrub showing a higher species richness and density while late-successional species are poorly represented on the Bracken site. However, NMDS ordination using species density showed that the two trajectories may not be converging towards a common ‘‘final state’’. Manual weeding was ineffective for accelerating forest recovery. These results suggest that the main limiting factor for the recruitment of woody species on the Pasture site is strong grass competition and must be addressed before seed availability, while seed availability seems to be theconstraining factor for Bracken and Shrub site development, thus direct seeding or planting may be effective in accelerating forest recovery.

Abstract:

Increasing land-use conflicts call for the development of land-use systems that reconcile agricultural production with the provisioning of multiple ecosystem services, including climate change mitigation. Agroforestry has been suggested as a global solution to increase land-use efficiency, while reducing environmental impacts and economic risks for farmers. Past research has often focused on comparing tree-crop combinations with agricultural monocultures, but agroforestry has seldom been systematically compared to other forms of land-use diversification, including a farm mosaic. This form of diversification mixes separate parcels of different land uses within the farm. The objective of this study was to develop a modelling approach to compare the performance of the agroforestry and farm mosaic diversification strategies, accounting for tree-crop interaction effects and economic and climate uncertainty. For this purpose, Modern Portfolio Theory and risk simulation were coupled with the process-based biophysical simulation model WaNuLCAS 4.0. For an example application, we used data from a field trial in Panama. The results show that the simulated agroforestry systems (Taungya, alley cropping and border planting) could outperform a farm mosaic approach in terms of cumulative production and return. Considering market and climate uncertainty, agroforestry showed an up to 21% higher economic return at the same risk level (i.e. standard deviation of economic returns). Farm compositions with large shares of land allocated to maize cultivation were also more severely affected by an increasing drought frequency in terms of both risks and returns. Our study demonstrates that agroforestry can be an economically efficient diversification strategy, but only if the design allows for economies of scope, beneficial interactions between trees and crops and higher income diversification compared to a farm mosaic. The modelling approach can make an important contribution to support land-use decisions at the farm level and reduce land-use conflicts at the landscape level.

Abstract:

High landscape diversity is assumed to increase the number and level of ecosystem services. However, the interactions between ecosystem service provision, disturbance and landscape composition are poorly understood. Here we present a novel approach to include uncertainty in the optimization of land allocation for improving the provision of multiple ecosystem services. We refer to the rehabilitation of abandoned agricultural lands in Ecuador including two types of both afforestation and pasture rehabilitation, together with a succession option. Our results show that high compositional landscape diversity supports multiple ecosystem services (multifunction effect). This implicitly provides a buffer against uncertainty. Our work shows that active integration of uncertainty is only important when optimizing single or highly correlated ecosystem services and that the multifunction effect on landscape diversity is stronger than the uncertainty effect. This is an important insight to support a land-use planning based on ecosystem services.

Abstract:

The theory of portfolio selection has often been applied to help improving decisions on the environment. The information required to apply this theory includes data on covariance of the uncertain returns between all combinations of the economic options and normally distributed returns. As it may be problematic to fulfil all data requirements and assumptions, the paper proposes a variant of robust portfolio optimization as an alternative. It considers future uncer-tainties in a non-stochastic fashion by means of possible deviations from the nominal return of land-use alternatives. The maximization of the economic return of the land-use portfolio is conditional to meeting an inclusive set of constraints. These demand that the same, whenever possible high, proportion of a required return threshold is achieved by means of the robust solution for each deviation scenario considered. The paper compares the land-use portfolios derived non-stochastically with portfolios generated by classical stochastic mean-variance op-timization. Based on data for eight agricultural crops typical for the Ecuadorian lowlands the results show that, depending on the deviation scenario assumed, the robust portfolios show a greater Shannon index compared to classical portfolios. For the same standard deviation of returns (derived through the classical sum of all covariances) the robust portfolios show no more than 2-5% loss in economic return in most cases. Occasionally, the loss has been higher, up to 20%. In this case the Shannon index was about 2.5 times higher compared with that of the conventional portfolio. The highly diverse portfolio achieved a much better protection against low relative performance. The results obtained show that the non-stochastic derivation of land-use portfolios is a good alternative to the classical stochastic model, whenever eco-nomic information is scarce.

Abstract:

Aims We determined the reasons why in nutrient solution increasing Al concentrations>300 ?M inhibited shoot biomass production of Cedrela odorata L., Heliocarpus americanus L., and Tabebuia chrysantha (Jacq.) G. Nicholson while 300 ?M Al stimulated root biomass production of Tabebuia chrysantha. Methods Nutrient concentrations in plant tissue after a hydroponic growth experiment were determined. Results Increasing Al concentrations significantly decreased Mg concentrations in leaves. Phosphorus concentrations in roots of C. odorata and T. chrysantha were significantly highest in the treatment with 300 ?M Al and correlated significantly with root biomass. Conclusions Shoot biomass production was likely inhibited by reduced Mg uptake, impairing photosynthesis. The stimulation of root growth at low Al concentrations can be possibly attributed to improved P uptake.

Abstract:

Increasing demands for livelihood resources in tropical rural areas have led to progressive clearing of biodiverse natural forests. Restoration of abandoned farmlands could counter this process. However, as aims and modes of restoration differ in their ecological and socio-economic value, the assessment of achievable ecosystem functions and bene?ts requires holistic investigation. Here we combine the results from multidisciplinary research for a unique assessment based on a normalization of 23 ecological, economic and social indicators for four restoration options in the tropical Andes of Ecuador. A comparison of the outcomes among afforestation with native alder or exotic pine, pasture restoration with either low-input or intense management and the abandoned status quo shows that both variants of afforestation and intense pasture use improve the ecological value, but low-input pasture does not. Economic indicators favour either afforestation or intense pasturing. Both Mestizo and indigenous Saraguro settlers are more inclined to opt for afforestation.

Abstract:

Aims: In acid tropical forest soils (pH <5.5)increased mobility of aluminum might limit aboveground productivity. Therefore, we evaluated Al phytotoxicity of three native tree species of tropical montane forests in southern Ecuador. Methods: An hydroponic dose-response experiment was conducted. Seedlings of Cedrela odorata L., Heliocarpus americanus L., and Tabebuia chrysantha(Jacq.) G. Nicholson were treated with 0, 300, 600, 1200, and 2400 ?M Al and an organic layer leachate. Dose-response curves were generated for root and shoot morphologic properties to determine effective concentrations (EC). Results: Shoot biomass and healthy leaf area decreased by 44 % to 83 % at 2400 ?M Al, root biomass did not respond (C. odorata), declined by 51 % (H. americanus), or was stimulated at low Al concentrations of 300 ?M (T. chrysantha). EC10 (i.e. reduction 10 %) values of Al for total biomass were 315 ?M (C. odorata), 219 ?M (H. americanus), and 368 ?M (T. chrysantha). Helicarpus americanus, a fast growing pioneer tree species, was most sensitive to Al toxicity. Negative effects were strongest if plants grew in organic layer leachate, indicating limitation of plant growth by nutrient scarcity rather than Al toxicity. Conclusions: Al toxicity occurred at Al concentrations far above those in native organic layer leachate.

Abstract:

Schemes that reward developing countries for the mitigation of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions through preservation and restoration of their forests are becoming more common. However, efforts to reduce GHG emissions must also consider food production. This creates an apparent conflict, since agricultural production ? a key driver of GHG emissions as a consequence of forest clearance ? will increase as human populations continue to grow. We argue that a mix of small cropland and forest parcels enables sustainable intensification of agriculture by minimizing soil degradation . Economic analyses of the mixed land-use concept suggest an improvement of long-term economic performance by 19?25% relative to conventional industrial agriculture. Adopting this approach requires farm management plans, landscape zoning, and new instruments to finance sustainable agriculture. We conclude that climate policy and food production are reconciled through an integrative landscape concept that combines sustainable intensification of agriculture and reforestation of abandoned lands.

Abstract:

We usually have only limited knowledge about the economic consequences of land-use decisions, thus they are uncertain. We analyze the implications of this uncertainty on conservation payments (CP) to preserve wildlife-friendly shade coffee production in southwest Ecuador, when conversion to maize is the most profitable alternative. Our objective is twofold: First, we analyze the consequences of applying Stochastic Dominance (SD) to derive CP, an approach making only minimal assumptions about the preferences of farmers. Second, we investigate the effects of land-use diversification to reduce CP by allowing for shade coffee on part of a landholding, and maize production on what remains. CP derived by SD turned out to be at least twice the amount calculated by an alternative method which maximizes a concave utility function?US$ 166 to US$ 294 ha-1 year-1 instead of US$ 86 ha-1 year-1. Given this result, we doubt that the assumptions underlying SD are reasonable for farmers, who are known to be riskaverse. Allowing for land-use diversification has a significant impact on CP. The optimal portfolio share of shade coffee is 27 % and for maize 73 % for moderately risk-averse farmers?without any CP. A larger share of shade coffee is preferable for strongly risk-averse farmers?51 and 49 % maize. The amount of CP necessary to encourage the expansion of shade coffee to 75 %is US$ 40 ha-1 year-1 (for moderately risk-averse) and US$ 19 ha-1 year-1 (for strongly risk-averse farmers). Stimulating diversification may thus help to significantly reduce CP necessary to preserve less profitable agroforestry options.

Abstract:

This paper analyses the effectiveness and distributional effects of payments to avoid tropical deforestation. As a first aspect, we investigated whether or not expected payments for avoided deforestation would be acceptable for tropical farmers in Southern Ecuador, with the study area located directly adjacent to the Podocarpus National Park. Second, we explored possible distributional effects resulting from voluntary or mandatory remuneration schemes to avoid deforestation. Finally, a productive sustainable land use was conceptualised to be combined with payments for avoided deforestation to avoid leakage (i.e. deforestation processes elsewhere when avoided at a given farm). Farm level land use scenarios with ("business as usual") and without deforestation ("conservation strategy") were compared. Compensation per Mg Carbon (C) that is not emitted into the atmosphere under the "conservation strategy" was derived to achieve a monetary land net present value (NPV, sum of discounted future net revenues) equal to the NPV obtained under "business as usual". Avoided carbon emissions were computed from above ground C in tropical forests of the project area and supplemented by information on soil carbon from another study. Economic data for cattle pasturing were obtained from a farm survey (130 households) to investigate distributional effects. To derive sustainable land use concepts, a risk sensitive bioeconomic farm model was used that considered effects of risk compensation when combining pasture with reforestation of abandoned farm lands and selective logging of natural forests. The results showed that only a few farmers (20 out of 130) would possibly accept a compensation price of US$ 10 per Mg avoided C emission, a C-compensation that is believed by other authors to reduce deforestation by 65%. Rather a compensation of around US$ 25 per Mg C was necessary to address compensation requirements of farmers who hold 50% of the tropical forest area in our study. The implementation of a voluntary remuneration scheme for avoided deforestation would not introduce systematic distributional effects (such as that only the biggest farmers would benefit from compensation), while a mandatory and enforced ban on deforestation coupled with a "fair" compensation payment equal to mean compensation requirements may lead to undesirable effects for many farmers. Finally, we demonstrate a mixed sustainable land use concept that depended on cheap credits for reforestation of abandoned pasture lands. This concept was able to stop farm level deforestation and to enlarge the economic value of farms through various combined land use options (agricultural and forestry options). The combination of land uses led to risk compensatory effects and a more efficient land use by reintegrating unproductive abandoned areas back into the economical process. In our conclusion a combination of payments for avoided deforestation along with productive land use concepts provided a viable solution for tropical forest conservation.

Abstract:

The montane forests of Ecuador are part of one of the world?s hotspots of biodiversity and they also suffer the highest deforestation rate amongst South American countries. The processes that drive the dynamics of these highly diverse ecosystems are poorly understood. This is particularly true for transient dynamics, which are crucial for the protection and sustainable management of such forests. Dynamic simulation models can be used to analyse the growth of forests, but so far they have been applied mostly to temperate forests and to some few tropical lowland forests. In this study we investigate whether a process-based, individual-oriented simulation model like FORMIND is capable of reproducing the dynamics of tropical montane forests. For this purpose we develop a parameterisation for the model and validate the model against field observations of different (structural) patterns. We then analyse the predicted succession dynamics. The model is capable of reproducing the structure and dynamics of mature ridge forest on different levels of complexity. The main results indicate that, in terms of relative abundances of different species groups and stem size distribution in the tree community, our model predicts the observed patterns in the field. Additional field studies and model modifications are required to simulate the succession processes that follow different types of disturbances. FORMIND is a promising tool for the extrapolation of local measurements and for simulating the dynamics of tropical montane forests. Parameterisations of the model for further forest types within the research area are intended. The model has a number of potential applications, ranging from investigating the impact of (different) natural disturbances on forest structure and tree species diversity to analysing different potential management strategies.

Abstract:

Abstract: For the first time in tropical mountain rain forest, arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal richness and community composition was investigated from planted seedlings of Cedrela montana, Heliocarpus americanus, Juglans neotropica and Tabebuia chrysantha in reforestation plots on degraded pastures. A segment of fungal 18S rDNA was sequenced from the mycorrhizas. Sequences were compared with those obtained from mycorrhizas of adult trees of 30 species in the neighboring, pristine tropical mountain rain forest. In total, 193 glomeromycotan sequences were analyzed, 130 of them previously unpublished. Members of Glomeraceae, Acaulosporaceae, Gigasporaceae and Archaeosporales were found in both habitats, with Glomus Group A sequences being by far the most diverse and abundant. Glomus Group A sequence type richness did not appear to differ between the habitats; a large number was observed in both. Glomus Group A sequence type composition, however, was found distinctly different. Seedlings were rarely colonized by fungi of the pristine forest but trapped a number of fungi known from other areas, which were rarely found in the pristine forest.