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Übersicht

Detailansicht

These maps provide projected land use/land cover (LUC) of the Loja-Zamora region for every 10 years from 2010 until 2100. They consist of 6 LUC classes: Forest, Subparamo, Paramo, Pasture, Urban and Water.
The maps were created by modelling LUC change (LUCC) using information of past changes derived by remotely sensed data and several explanatory variables (e. g distance from streets). A training period of 14 years between 1987 and 2001 was chosen. Special focus was on forest development patterns. A change detection of the training period provided the basis for predictive LUCC modelling. The modelling procedure consisted of a combination of Markov chain analysis (MCA) for quantitative modelling and multi-layer perceptron (MLP) for revealing potential locations of change. A multi-objective land allocation (MOLA) served as final integration step.

The maps are available in UTM 17S (WGS 84) projection. 
Input data for the model were two LUC Classifications from 1987 and 2001 (Meyer et al. 2011), a SRTM 90m digital elevation model (DEM), GIS-Layers of streets, villages and rivers in the study area and a GIS layer which contained the borders of the Podocarpus national park (Instituto Geográfico Militar Ecuador).
The modelled LUCC were urbanisation, deforestation and reforestation. Explanatory variables of LUCC were elevation, aspect, slope, distance from streets, distance from rivers, distance from Loja, distance from villages and distance from forest edges. The variable ?distance from forest edges? was dynamic. Therefore LUCC was not modelled directly until 2100 but with recalculation steps every 10 years. Consequently, the procedure steps 3 to 5 were accomplished for every 10 years. The Step 1 was only for some parts accomplished every 10 years.

More detailed information about the methodology used here to predict LUCC can be found in (Meyer 2010)

References:

Instituto Geográfico Militar Ecuador: Data of basically geographic featrures (rivers, roads, cities, administrative borders). Given to Rollenbeck, R. in 2002 for scientific use.)

Meyer, H. (2010): Predicting land use/land cover changes in a tropical mountain forest of Ecuador for future SVAT prediction. A modelling approach and result validation based on GIS and remotely sensed data Marburg University, bachelor thesis. 

Meyer H. , Thies B. , and Bendix J. (2011): Land use/land cover map of South Ecuador 1987 . Available online (http://www.tropicalmountainforest.org/data_pre.do?citid=1038) from DFG-FOR816dw. 

Meyer H. , Thies B. , and Bendix J. (2011): Land use/land cover map of South Ecuador 2001 . Available online (http://www.tropicalmountainforest.org/data_pre.do?citid=1039) from DFG-FOR816dw.