Laboratory for
Climatology and Remote Sensing

Abstract:

Temperate grasslands play globally an important role, for example, for biodiversity conservation, livestock forage production, and carbon storage. The latter two are primarily controlled by biomass production, which is assumed to decrease with lower amounts and higher variability of precipitation, while increasing air temperature might either foster or suppress biomass production. Additionally, a higher atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) is supposed to increase biomass productivity either by directly stimulating photosynthesis or indirectly by inducing water savings (CO2 fertilization effect). Consequently, future biomass productivity is controlled by the partially contrasting effects of changing climatic conditions and [CO2], which to date are only marginally understood. This results in high uncertainties of future biomass production and carbon storage estimates. Consequently, this study aims at statistically estimating mid-21st century grassland aboveground biomass (AGB) based on 18 years of data (1998–2015) from a free air carbon enrichment experiment. We found that lower precipitation totals and a higher precipitation variability reduced AGB. Under drier conditions accompanied by increasing air temperature, AGB further decreased. Here AGB under elevated [CO2] was partly even lower compared to AGB under ambient [CO2], probably because elevated [CO2] reduced evaporative cooling of plants, increasing heat stress. This indicates a higher susceptibility of AGB to increased air temperature under future atmospheric [CO2]. Since climate models for Central Europe project increasing air temperature and decreasing total summer precipitation associated with an increasing variability, our results suggest that grassland summer AGB will be reduced in the future, contradicting the widely expected positive yield anomalies from increasing [CO2].

Abstract:

Grünländer der gemäßigten Breiten liefern wichtige Ökosystemdienstleistungen die von der Biomasseproduktion abhängen. Letztere nimmt mit geringeren Niederschlägen und höheren Niederschlagsvariabilitäten ab, während höhere Lufttemperaturen fördernd wirken können. Zusätzlich sollen höhere atmosphärische CO2-Konzentrationen ([CO2]s) die Biomasse durch direkte Stimulation der Photosynthese und Wassereinsparung (CO2-Düngeeffekt) erhöhen. Somit ist die Biomasseproduktivität durch teils gegenläufige Auswirkungen wechselnder klimatischer Bedingungen und [CO2] gesteuert. Die Studie untersucht diese Einflüsse des globalen Wandels auf Grundlage eines Freiluftexperiments zur CO2-Anreicherung (~20% über Umgebungs-[CO2]; 18 J.) um die oberirdische Sommer-Biomasse (AGB) Mitte des 21. Jhdt. statistisch vorherzusagen. Ein informationstheoretisches Screening lieferte die wichtigsten Prädiktoren, basierend auf Lufttemperatur- und Niederschlagsmessungen. Die AGB-Produktion wurde für verschiedene Klimaregime, abgeleitet aus den Beobachtungen des Versuchszeitraums, geschätzt. Wir fanden, dass die zukünftige AGB-Produktion hauptsächlich von der Niederschlagsmenge abhängt, gefolgt von Lufttemperatur und Niederschlagsvariabilität. Variablere Niederschläge reduzierten die AGB und umgekehrt. Die AGB-Produktion unter trockenen Bedingungen verringerte sich mit steigenden Lufttemperaturen weiter. Im Kontrast zu weithin erwarteter Ertragssteigerungen durch erhöhte [CO2]s, führen solche Bedingungen zu AGB-Vorhersagen unter denen der aktuellen AGBs. Da Klimamodelle für Sommer in Mitteleuropa steigende Lufttemperaturen und abnehmende Niederschlagsmengen mit zunehmender Variabilität projizieren, deuten unsere Ergebnisse trotz steigender [CO2]s auf eine reduzierte zukünftige Grünland-Sommer-AGB hin.

Abstract:

The increase of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations resulting from anthropogenic activities is the major driver of global climate change. A net sink effect caused by stimulated plant photosynthesis through rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]) and, consequently, an increased net primary productivity (NPP) of C3 plants (termed the CO2 fertilization effect, CFE) is widely assumed. However, knowledge about the magnitude and persistence of the CFE under future climates including more frequent weather extremes is still lacking. Therefore, we have investigated the CFE in dependence to its accompanying environmental conditions in the long-term time series (16 years) of a temperate grassland grown under “Free Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment” in Gießen, the GiFACE. Our results reveal that the CFE is strongest under local average environmental conditions and reduced or disappeared under wetter, drier and/or hotter conditions. This is in contrast to predictions of an increased CO2 fertilization under drier and warmer conditions. The results are of utmost importance because respective weather and climate conditions are projected in climate scenarios. Consequently, the state-of-art biogeochemical models might overestimate the future NPP sink capacity of temperate C3 grasslands. Since temperate grasslands represent an important portion of the Earth’s terrestrial surface, and therefore the global carbon cycle, atmospheric [CO2] might increase faster than currently expected.

Abstract:

The increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations from anthropogenic activities is the major driver of recent global climate change1. The stimulation of plant photosynthesis due to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]) is widely assumed to increase the net primary productivity (NPP) of C3 plants—the CO2 fertilization effect (CFE). However, the magnitude and persistence of the CFE under future climates, including more frequent weather extremes, are controversial. Here we use data from 16 years of temperate grassland grown under ‘free-air carbon dioxide enrichment’ conditions to show that the CFE on above-ground biomass is strongest under local average environmental conditions. The observed CFE was reduced or disappeared under wetter, drier and/or hotter conditions when the forcing variable exceeded its intermediate regime. This is in contrast to predictions of an increased CO2 fertilization effect under drier and warmer conditions. Such extreme weather conditions are projected to occur more intensely and frequently under future climate scenarios. Consequently, current biogeochemical models might overestimate the future NPP sink capacity of temperate C3 grasslands and hence underestimate future atmospheric [CO2] increase.