Environmental changes in biodiversity hotspot ecosystems of
South Ecuador: RESPonse and feedback effECTs (FOR2730)

Abstract:

Future climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) predict an acceleration of the global hydrological cycle throughout the 21st century in response to human-induced rise in temperatures. However, projections of GCMs are too coarse in resolution to be used in local studies of climate change impacts. To cope with this problem, downscaling methods have been developed that transform climate projections into high resolution datasets to drive impact models such as rainfall-runoff models. Generally, the range of changes simulated by different GCMs is considered to be the major source of variability in the results of such studies. However, the cascade of uncertainty in runoff projections is further elongated by differences between impact models, especially where robust calibration is hampered by the scarcity of data. Here, we address the relative importance of these different sources of uncertainty in a poorly monitored headwater catchment of the Ecuadorian Andes. Therefore, we force 7 hydrological models with downscaled outputs of 8 GCMs driven by the A1B and A2 emission scenarios over the 21st century. Results indicate a likely increase in annual runoff by 2100 with a large variability between the different combinations of a climate model with a hydrological

Abstract:

Hillslopes are the dominant landscape components where incoming precipitation becomes groundwater, streamflow or atmospheric water vapor. However, directly observing flux partitioning in the soil is almost impossible. Hydrological hillslope models are therefore being used to investigate the processes involved. Here we report on a modeling experiment using the Catchment Modeling Framework (CMF) where measured stable water isotopes in vertical soil profiles along a tropical mountainous grassland hillslope transect are traced through the model to resolve potential mixing processes. CMF simulates advective transport of stable water isotopes 18O and 2H based on the Richards equation within a fully distributed 2-D representation of the hillslope. The model successfully replicates the observed temporal pattern of soil water isotope profiles (R2 0.84 and Nash– Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) 0.42). Predicted flows are in good agreement with previous studies. We highlight the importance of groundwater recharge and shallow lateral subsurface flow, accounting for 50 and 16% of the total flow leaving the system, respectively. Surface runoff is negligible despite the steep slopes in the Ecuadorian study region.

Abstract:

In former studies, a linkage between stream water element exports and stream discharge was observed at the 8.6 ha microcatchment in the montane forest of Ecuador, which was attributed to different water flow paths and the accessibility of different element sources in soil. Climate models predict an increase in temperature and precipitation. This climate change will have an impact on the water flow paths in soil and therefore alter element exports. To estimate current and future element exports, the hydrological model WaSiM was applied to the study site in daily resolution and discharge was modelled for the period 1998 - 2013. Furthermore, weekly measurements of total organic carbon (TOC), NO3-N, NH4-N, dissolved organic nitrogen (DON), PO4-P, total dissolved phosphorus (TDP), S, Cl, K, Ca, Mg, Na, Zn, Al and Mn concentrations in stream water 1998-2012 were grouped into three flow classes (baseflow, intermediate and storm) representing the rate of modelled discharge at the time of stream water sampling. By multiplying the mean concentrations of elements per flow class by the average of the yearly discharge sums per flow class and subsequently summing up per element, fluxes for current element exports were calculated. To derive estimations for future element exports in stream water, discharge was modelled under the emission scenarios A1B and B1 for the decades 2050 - 2059 and 2090 - 2099 and grouped into the three flow classes (as per above). To derive the future element exports for each scenario, yearly sums of the predicted volumes of stream water per flow class were multiplied by the mean element concentrations per flow class and finally summed up per element. For the 1998 – 2013 period the resulting mean annual exports of TOC (57.56), NO3-N (1.21), NH4-N (1.82), DON (1.8), PO4-P (0.47), TDP (0.68), S (2.56), Cl (8.15), K (4.92), Ca (7.61), Mg (4.95), Na (37.41), Zn (0.12), Al (0.18), and Mn (0.01) in kilograms per hectare per year in 1998 - 2013 were in the same range as values from the literature, except for P compounds with higher export rates and Al with lower export rates. The number of days with high discharge rates (storm) was predicted to increase and low flow days (baseflow) to occur less often under both climate scenarios and decades. Furthermore, mean discharge rates were predicted to increase by between 7.5 and 21 % until the end of the 21st century. Whereas exports of TOC (+10-25 %), NO3-N (+11-27 %), NH4-N (+6-18 %), S (+4-13 %), Cl (+10-26 %), K (+6-16 %), Ca (+7-19 %), Mg (+7-20 %), Na (+4-15 %), Zn (+12-29 %), Al (+24-53 %), Mn (+10-28 %) were predicted to increase until 2090-2099, PO4-P (+4 to -1 %) and TDP (+3 to -2 %) exports were predicted to remain relatively constant. My results demonstrate, that alterations of the water flow paths through soil due to climate change could have a considerable influence on future element exports.