Calvas, B.; Castro, L.M.; Kindu, M.; Bingham, L.; Pintado, K.; Torres Celi, J.; Knoke, T. & Cueva Ortiz, J.L. (2024): <b>Large differences between observed and expected Ecuadorian deforestation from 2001 to 2009: a counterfactual simulation approach</b>. <i>Regional Environmental Change</i> <b>24</b>, 94.
Resource Description
Title:
Large differences between observed and expected Ecuadorian deforestation from 2001 to 2009: a counterfactual simulation approach
FOR816dw ID:
2017
Publication Date:
2024-06-08
License and Usage Rights:
Resource Owner(s):
Individual:
Baltazar Calvas
Contact:
email:
bcalvas <at> utpl.edu.ec
Hans-Carl-von- Carlowitz-Platz 2
Fachgebiet für Waldinventur und nachhaltige Nutzung
85354, Freising
85354 Freising
Germany
Individual:
Luz Maria Castro
Contact:
email:
luces_c <at> yahoo.es
Ecuador
Individual:
Mengistie Kindu
Contact:
email:
webmaster <at> tropicalmountainforest.org
Individual:
Logan Bingham
Contact:
email:
webmaster <at> tropicalmountainforest.org
Individual:
Karla Pintado
Contact:
email:
karla.pintado <at> tum.de
Institute of Forest Management
Technical University of Munich
Hans Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2
85354 Freising
Germany
Individual:
Jonathan Torres Celi
Contact:
email:
jitorres14 <at> utpl.edu.ec
Loja
Ecuador
Individual:
Thomas Knoke
Contact:
email:
knoke <at> forst.tu-muenchen.de
Center of Life and Food Science Weihenstephan
Institute of Forest Management
Technische Universität München
Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2
85354 Freising
Germany
Individual:
Jorge Luis Cueva Ortiz
Contact:
email:
jorgelcueva <at> hotmail.com
Ecuador
Abstract:
Ensuring the integrity of the world’s forests is indispensable for mitigating climate change, combatting biodiversity loss, and protecting the livelihoods of rural communities. While many strategies have been developed to address deforestation across different geographic scales, measuring their impact against a fluctuating background of market-driven forest loss is notoriously challenging. In this article, we (1) asses deforestation in Ecuador using a dynamic, counterfactual baseline that excludes non-market factors, (2) identify periods of reduced and excess deforestation, and (3) assess the economic consequences<br/>
of associated CO2 emissions using the social cost of carbon metric. We construct a counterfactual market-forces-only reference scenario by simulating heterogeneous profit-seeking agents making satisficing land-use allocation decisions under uncertainty. The model simulates a reference scenario for 2001–2022, a period encompassing dollarization, the beginning of a constitution granting inalienable rights to nature, and the launch of the largest payments for ecosystem services program in Ecuador’s history. On this period, total deforestation was approximately 20% lower than expected in a market-forces-only<br/>
scenario (9540 vs.12,000 km2). The largest deviation occurred in 2001–2009, when observed deforestation was 43.6% lower than expected (3720 vs 6590 km2).<br/>
From 2010 onwards, deforestation appears to be market-driven. We assess the economic value of avoided CO2 emissions at US $5.7 billion if the reduction is permanent, or US $3.1 billion considering a 1% risk of loss from 2022 onwards. We discuss contributing factors that likely shaped periods of reduced and excess deforestation and stress the need to use realistic baselines.
Keywords:
| land use | land use change | land use modeling | Ecuador, Climate Change, Land Use | land use/land cover |
Literature type specific fields:
ARTICLE
Journal:
Regional Environmental Change
Volume:
24
Page Range:
94
Metadata Provider:
Individual:
Thomas Knoke
Contact:
email:
knoke <at> forst.tu-muenchen.de
Center of Life and Food Science Weihenstephan
Institute of Forest Management
Technische Universität München
Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2
85354 Freising
Germany
