Environmental changes in biodiversity hotspot ecosystems of
South Ecuador: RESPonse and feedback effECTs (FOR2730)

Abstract:

Ensuring the integrity of the world’s forests is indispensable for mitigating climate change, combatting biodiversity loss, and protecting the livelihoods of rural communities. While many strategies have been developed to address deforestation across different geographic scales, measuring their impact against a fluctuating background of market-driven forest loss is notoriously challenging. In this article, we (1) asses deforestation in Ecuador using a dynamic, counterfactual baseline that excludes non-market factors, (2) identify periods of reduced and excess deforestation, and (3) assess the economic consequences of associated CO2 emissions using the social cost of carbon metric. We construct a counterfactual market-forces-only reference scenario by simulating heterogeneous profit-seeking agents making satisficing land-use allocation decisions under uncertainty. The model simulates a reference scenario for 2001–2022, a period encompassing dollarization, the beginning of a constitution granting inalienable rights to nature, and the launch of the largest payments for ecosystem services program in Ecuador’s history. On this period, total deforestation was approximately 20% lower than expected in a market-forces-only scenario (9540 vs.12,000 km2). The largest deviation occurred in 2001–2009, when observed deforestation was 43.6% lower than expected (3720 vs 6590 km2). From 2010 onwards, deforestation appears to be market-driven. We assess the economic value of avoided CO2 emissions at US $5.7 billion if the reduction is permanent, or US $3.1 billion considering a 1% risk of loss from 2022 onwards. We discuss contributing factors that likely shaped periods of reduced and excess deforestation and stress the need to use realistic baselines.

Abstract:

Tropical ecosystems offer a unique setting for understanding ecohydrological processes, but to date, such investigations have been limited. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the impor- tance of studying these processes—specifically, how they are being affected by the transforma- tive changes taking place in the tropics—and to offer an agenda for future research. At present, the ongoing loss of native ecosystems is largely due to agricultural expansion, but parallel pro- cesses of afforestation are also taking place, leading to shifts in ecohydrological fluxes. Similarly, shifts in water availability due to climate change will affect both water and carbon fluxes in trop- ical ecosystems. A number of methods exist that can help us better understand how changes in land use and climate affect ecohydrological processes; these include stable isotopes, remote sens- ing, and process?based models. Still, our knowledge of the underlying physical mechanisms, espe- cially those that determine the effects of scale on ecosystem processes, remains incomplete.We assert that development of a knowledge base concerning the effects of transformative change on ecological, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes at different spatio?temporal scales is an urgent need for tropical regions and should serve as a compass for emerging ecohydrologists. To reach this goal, we advocate a research agenda that expands the number and diversity of eco- systems targeted for ecohydrological investigations and connects researchers across the tropics. We believe that the use of big data and open source software—already an important integrative tool/skill for the young ecohydrologist—will be key in expanding research capabilities.