Environmental changes in biodiversity hotspot ecosystems of
South Ecuador: RESPonse and feedback effECTs (FOR2730)

Abstract:

Ensuring the integrity of the world’s forests is indispensable for mitigating climate change, combatting biodiversity loss, and protecting the livelihoods of rural communities. While many strategies have been developed to address deforestation across different geographic scales, measuring their impact against a fluctuating background of market-driven forest loss is notoriously challenging. In this article, we (1) asses deforestation in Ecuador using a dynamic, counterfactual baseline that excludes non-market factors, (2) identify periods of reduced and excess deforestation, and (3) assess the economic consequences of associated CO2 emissions using the social cost of carbon metric. We construct a counterfactual market-forces-only reference scenario by simulating heterogeneous profit-seeking agents making satisficing land-use allocation decisions under uncertainty. The model simulates a reference scenario for 2001–2022, a period encompassing dollarization, the beginning of a constitution granting inalienable rights to nature, and the launch of the largest payments for ecosystem services program in Ecuador’s history. On this period, total deforestation was approximately 20% lower than expected in a market-forces-only scenario (9540 vs.12,000 km2). The largest deviation occurred in 2001–2009, when observed deforestation was 43.6% lower than expected (3720 vs 6590 km2). From 2010 onwards, deforestation appears to be market-driven. We assess the economic value of avoided CO2 emissions at US $5.7 billion if the reduction is permanent, or US $3.1 billion considering a 1% risk of loss from 2022 onwards. We discuss contributing factors that likely shaped periods of reduced and excess deforestation and stress the need to use realistic baselines.

Abstract:

The comparatively long research history within the study area allowed to develop well-grounded hypotheses on how the hydrological system within the study area should behave (Bogner et al., 2014; Boy et al., 2008; Bücker et al., 2011, 2010; Crespo et al., 2012, 2011; Fleischbein et al., 2006; Goller et al., 2005). Based on those earlier findings made within the study area and the hydrological research conducted elsewhere in tropical mountain cloud forests (see Bonell and Bruijnzeel, 2004; Bruijnzeel, 2004; Bruijnzeel et al., 2011 for recent overviews) provided the background to shape the research conducted within this dissertation around the focal point of global change impacts on the hydrological cycle inside the study area (see chapter 1.3).Separated into three chapters, each representing a scientific research paper, this thesis will address the issue on how to evaluate effects of land-use change on the hydrological cycle (chapter 2), how stable water isotopes are distributed over space and time within the study area (chapter 3) and how stable water isotopes can be used in hydrological models to assist this analysis of global change impacts in the future (chapter 4). All of the research conducted for this dissertation was performed in the Rio San Francisco catchment within South Ecuador.