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Knoke, T.; Hanley, N.; Roman-Cuesta, R.M.; Groom, B.; Venmans, F. &amp; Paul, C. (2023): <b>Trends in tropical forest loss and the social value of emission reductions</b>. <i>Nature Sustainability</i> <b>online</b>, 1-15.

Resource Description

Title: Trends in tropical forest loss and the social value of emission reductions
FOR816dw ID: 1986
Publication Date: 2023-07-13
License and Usage Rights:
Resource Owner(s):
Individual: Thomas Knoke
Contact:
Individual: Nick Hanley
Contact:
Individual: Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta
Contact:
Individual: Ben Groom
Contact:
Individual: Frank Venmans
Contact:
Individual: Carola Paul
Contact:
Abstract:
Reducing global forest losses is essential to mitigate climate change and<br/> its associated social costs. Multiple market and non-market factors can<br/> enhance or reduce forest loss. Here, to understand the role of non-market<br/> factors (for example, policies, climate anomalies or conflicts), we can<br/> compare observed trends to a reference (expected) scenario that excludes<br/> non-market factors. We define an expected scenario by simulating<br/> land-use decisions solely driven by market prices, productivities and<br/> presumably plausible decision-making. The land-use allocation model<br/> considers economic profits and uncertainties as incentives for forest<br/> conversion. We compare reference forest losses in Brazil, the Democratic<br/> Republic of Congo and Indonesia (2000–2019) with observed forest<br/> losses and assign differences from non-market factors. Our results<br/> suggest that non-market factors temporarily lead to lower-than-expected<br/> forest losses summing to 11.1 million hectares, but also to phases with<br/> higher-than-expected forest losses of 11.3 million hectares. Phases with<br/> lower-than-expected forest losses occurred earlier than those with<br/> higher-than-expected forest losses. The damages avoided by delaying<br/> emissions that would otherwise have occurred represent a social value<br/> of US$61.6 billion (as of the year 2000). This result shows the economic<br/> importance of forest conservation efforts in the tropics, even if reduced<br/> forest loss might be temporary and reverse over time.
Keywords:
| land use change | land use modeling | social costs of carbon |
Literature type specific fields:
ARTICLE
Journal: Nature Sustainability
Volume: online
Page Range: 1-15
Metadata Provider:
Individual: Thomas Knoke
Contact:
Online Distribution:
Download File: http://www.tropicalmountainforest.org/publications.do?citid=1986


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