Knoke, T.; Hanley, N.; Roman-Cuesta, R.M.; Groom, B.; Venmans, F. & Paul, C. (2023): <b>Trends in tropical forest loss and the social value of emission reductions</b>. <i>Nature Sustainability</i> <b>online</b>, 1-15.
Resource Description
Title:
Trends in tropical forest loss and the social value of emission reductions
FOR816dw ID:
1986
Publication Date:
2023-07-13
License and Usage Rights:
Resource Owner(s):
Individual:
Thomas Knoke
Contact:
email:
knoke <at> forst.tu-muenchen.de
Center of Life and Food Science Weihenstephan
Institute of Forest Management
Technische Universität München
Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2
85354 Freising
Germany
Individual:
Nick Hanley
Contact:
email:
webmaster <at> tropicalmountainforest.org
Individual:
Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta
Contact:
email:
webmaster <at> tropicalmountainforest.com
Individual:
Ben Groom
Contact:
email:
webmaster <at> tropicalmountainforest.org
Individual:
Frank Venmans
Contact:
email:
webmaster <at> tropicalmountainforest.org
Individual:
Carola Paul
Contact:
email:
carola.paul <at> tum.de
Center of Life and Food Sciences Weihenstephan
Institute of Forest Management
Technische Universität München
Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2
85354 Freising
Germany
Abstract:
Reducing global forest losses is essential to mitigate climate change and<br/>
its associated social costs. Multiple market and non-market factors can<br/>
enhance or reduce forest loss. Here, to understand the role of non-market<br/>
factors (for example, policies, climate anomalies or conflicts), we can<br/>
compare observed trends to a reference (expected) scenario that excludes<br/>
non-market factors. We define an expected scenario by simulating<br/>
land-use decisions solely driven by market prices, productivities and<br/>
presumably plausible decision-making. The land-use allocation model<br/>
considers economic profits and uncertainties as incentives for forest<br/>
conversion. We compare reference forest losses in Brazil, the Democratic<br/>
Republic of Congo and Indonesia (2000–2019) with observed forest<br/>
losses and assign differences from non-market factors. Our results<br/>
suggest that non-market factors temporarily lead to lower-than-expected<br/>
forest losses summing to 11.1 million hectares, but also to phases with<br/>
higher-than-expected forest losses of 11.3 million hectares. Phases with<br/>
lower-than-expected forest losses occurred earlier than those with<br/>
higher-than-expected forest losses. The damages avoided by delaying<br/>
emissions that would otherwise have occurred represent a social value<br/>
of US$61.6 billion (as of the year 2000). This result shows the economic<br/>
importance of forest conservation efforts in the tropics, even if reduced<br/>
forest loss might be temporary and reverse over time.
Keywords:
| land use change | land use modeling | social costs of carbon |
Literature type specific fields:
ARTICLE
Journal:
Nature Sustainability
Volume:
online
Page Range:
1-15
Metadata Provider:
Individual:
Thomas Knoke
Contact:
email:
knoke <at> forst.tu-muenchen.de
Center of Life and Food Science Weihenstephan
Institute of Forest Management
Technische Universität München
Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2
85354 Freising
Germany
