Knoke, T.; Paul, C.; Rammig, A.; Gosling, E.; Hildebrandt, P.; Härtl, F.; Peters, T.; Richter, M.; Diertl, K.; Castro, L.M.; Calvas, B.; Ochoa Moreno, S.; Valle-Carrión, L.A.; Hamer, U.; Tischer, A.; Potthast, K.; Windhorst, D.; Homeier, J.; Wilcke, W.; Velescu, A.; Gerique, A.; Pohle, P.; Adams, J.; Breuer, L.; Mosandl, R.; Beck, E.; Weber, M.; Stimm, B.; Silva, B.; Verburg, P.H. & Bendix, J. (2020): <b>Accounting for multiple ecosystem services in a simulation of land-use decisions: Does it reduce tropical deforestation?</b>. <i>Global Change Biology</i> <b>26</b>( ), 1-22.
Resource Description
Title:
Accounting for multiple ecosystem services in a simulation of land-use decisions: Does it reduce tropical deforestation?
FOR816dw ID:
1823
Publication Date:
2020-03-01
License and Usage Rights:
Resource Owner(s):
Individual:
Thomas Knoke
Contact:
email:
webmaster <at> tropicalmountainforest.org
Individual:
Carola Paul
Contact:
email:
carola.paul <at> tum.de
Center of Life and Food Sciences Weihenstephan
Institute of Forest Management
Technische Universität München
Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2
85354 Freising
Germany
email:
jhomeie <at> gwdg.de
Faculty of Resource Management
University of Applied Sciences and Arts (HAWK)
37077 Göttingen
Germany
Individual:
Wolfgang Wilcke
Contact:
email:
wolfgang.wilcke <at> kit.edu
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Institute of Geography and Geoecology
Reinhard-Baumeister-Platz 1
76131 Karlsruhe
Baden-Württemberg
Germany
Individual:
Andre Velescu
Contact:
email:
andre.velescu <at> kit.edu
Karlsruher Institut für Technologie
Institut für Geographie und Geoökologie
Arbeitsgruppe Geomorphologie und Bodenkunde
Reinhard-Baumeister-Platz 1
76131 Karlsruhe
Germany
email:
ppohle <at> geographie.uni-erlangen.de
Institut für Geographie
Universität Erlangen
91054 Erlangen
Individual:
Julia Adams
Contact:
email:
webmaster <at> tropicalmountainforest.org
Individual:
Lutz Breuer
Contact:
email:
lutz.breuer <at> umwelt.uni-giessen.de
Heinrich-Buff-Ring 26
Institute for Landscape Ecology and Resources Management
Justus-Liebig-University Gießen
35392 Gießen
Germany
Individual:
Reinhard Mosandl
Contact:
email:
mosandl <at> forst.tu-muenchen.de
Dep. of Ecology and Ecosystem Management
Technische Universität München
Institute of Silviculture
Am Hochanger 13
85354 Freising
Germany
Individual:
Erwin Beck
Contact:
email:
erwin.beck <at> uni-bayreuth.de
Universitätsstr. 30
Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Geoscience
University of Bayreuth
95440 Bayreuth
Germany
Individual:
Michael Weber
Contact:
email:
m.weber <at> forst.wzw.tum.de
Am Hochanger 13
D-85354 Freising
Dep. Ecology and Ecosystem Management
Technische Universitaet Muenchen
Institute of Silviculture
85354 Freising
Germany
Individual:
Bernd Stimm
Contact:
email:
stimm <at> forst.tu-muenchen.de
Dep. of Ecology
Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2
Technische Universität München
Institute of Silviculture
85354 Freising
Germany
Abstract Conversion of tropical forests is among the primary causes of global environmental change. The loss of their important environmental services has prompted calls to integrate ecosystem services (ES) in addition to socio-economic objectives in decision-making. To test the effect of accounting for both ES and socio-economic objectives in land-use decisions, we develop a new dynamic approach to model deforestation scenarios for tropical mountain forests. We integrate multi-objective optimization of land allocation with an innovative approach to consider uncertainty spaces for each objective. These uncertainty spaces account for potential variability among decision-makers, who may have different expectations about the future. When optimizing only socio-economic objectives, the model continues the past trend in deforestation (1975–2015) in the projected land-use allocation (2015–2070). Based on indicators for biomass production, carbon storage, climate and water regulation, and soil quality, we show that considering multiple ES in addition to the socio-economic objectives has heterogeneous effects on land-use allocation. It saves some natural forest if the natural forest share is below 38%, and can stop deforestation once the natural forest share drops below 10%. For landscapes with high shares of forest (38%–80% in our study), accounting for multiple ES under high uncertainty of their indicators may, however, accelerate deforestation. For such multifunctional landscapes, two main effects prevail: (a) accelerated expansion of diversified non-natural areas to elevate the levels of the indicators and (b) increased landscape diversification to maintain multiple ES, reducing the proportion of natural forest. Only when accounting for vascular plant species richness as an explicit objective in the optimization, deforestation was consistently reduced. Aiming for multifunctional landscapes may therefore conflict with the aim of reducing deforestation, which we can quantify here for the first time. Our findings are relevant for identifying types of landscapes where this conflict may arise and to better align respective policies.
email:
bendix <at> staff.uni-marburg.de
Faculty of Geography
Deutschhausstraße 10
Philipps University of Marburg
Laboratory for Climatology and Remote Sensing
35032 Marburg
Germany
