Environmental changes in biodiversity hotspot ecosystems of
South Ecuador: RESPonse and feedback effECTs (FOR2730)

Abstract:

We present the first multi-year long time series of local climate data in the seasonally dry tropical forest in Southern Ecuador and related growth dynamics of Loxopterygium huasango, a deciduous tree species. Local climate was investigated by installing an automatically weather station in 2007 and the daily tree growth variability was measured with high-resolution point dendrometers. The climatic impact on growth behaviour was evaluated. Hydro-climatic variables, like precipitation and relative humidity, were the most important factors for controlling tree growth. Changes in rainwater input affected radial increment rates and daily amplitudes of stem diameter variations within the study period from 2009 to 2013. El Nin˜o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related variations of tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures influenced the trees’ increment rates. Average radial increments showed high inter-annual (up to 7.89 mm) and inter-individual (up to 3.88 mm) variations. Daily amplitudes of stem diameter variations differed strongly between the two extreme years 2009 (wet) and 2011 (dry). Contrary to 2009, the La Nin˜a drought in 2011 caused a rapid reduction of the daily amplitudes, indicating a total cessation (‘growth collapse’) of stem increment under ENSOrelated drought conditions and demonstrating the high impact of climatic extreme events on carbon sequestration of the dry tropical forest ecosystem.

Abstract:

Seasonally dry forests in the neotropics are heavily threatened by a combination of human disturbances and climate change; however, the severity of these threats is seldom contrasted. This study aims to quantify and compare the effects of deforestation and climate change on the natural spatial ranges of 17 characteristic tree species of southern Ecuador dry deciduous forests, which are heavily fragmented and support high levels of endemism as part of the Tumbesian ecoregion. We used 660 plant records to generate species distribution models and land-cover data to project species ranges for two time frames: a simulated deforestation scenario from 2008 to 2014 with native forest to anthropogenic land-use conversion, and an extreme climate change scenario (CCSM4.0, RCP 8.5) for 2050, which assumed zero change from human activities. To assess both potential threats, we compared the estimated annual rates of species loss (i.e., range shifts) affecting each species. Deforestation loss for all species averaged approximately 71 km2/year, while potential climate-attributed loss was almost 21 km2/year. Moreover, annual area loss rates due to deforestation were significantly higher than those attributed to climate-change (P < 0.01). However, projections into the future scenario show evidence of diverging displacement patterns, indicating the potential formation of novel ecosystems, which is consistent with other species assemblage predictions as result of climate change. Furthermore, we provide recommendations for management and conservation, prioritizing the most threatened species such as Albizia multiflora, Ceiba trichistandra, and Cochlospermum vitifolium.