Abstract:
Reducing global forest losses is essential to mitigate climate change and
its associated social costs. Multiple market and non-market factors can
enhance or reduce forest loss. Here, to understand the role of non-market
factors (for example, policies, climate anomalies or conflicts), we can
compare observed trends to a reference (expected) scenario that excludes
non-market factors. We define an expected scenario by simulating
land-use decisions solely driven by market prices, productivities and
presumably plausible decision-making. The land-use allocation model
considers economic profits and uncertainties as incentives for forest
conversion. We compare reference forest losses in Brazil, the Democratic
Republic of Congo and Indonesia (2000–2019) with observed forest
losses and assign differences from non-market factors. Our results
suggest that non-market factors temporarily lead to lower-than-expected
forest losses summing to 11.1 million hectares, but also to phases with
higher-than-expected forest losses of 11.3 million hectares. Phases with
lower-than-expected forest losses occurred earlier than those with
higher-than-expected forest losses. The damages avoided by delaying
emissions that would otherwise have occurred represent a social value
of US$61.6 billion (as of the year 2000). This result shows the economic
importance of forest conservation efforts in the tropics, even if reduced
forest loss might be temporary and reverse over time.
