Environmental changes in biodiversity hotspot ecosystems of
South Ecuador: RESPonse and feedback effECTs (FOR2730)

Abstract:

Sustainable intensification of agricultural lands might reconcile the conservation of tropical forest with food production,but in-depth assessments considering uncertainty and extreme values are missing. Uncertainty prohibits mapping probabilities to potential future states or ranking these states in terms of their likelihood. This in turn hampers the assessment of possible decision outcomes. Here, we use simulations to investigate how uncertainty may influence the social acceptability of alternative land-use strategies to halt tropical deforestation (including sustainable intensification), based on indicators representing farmer satisfaction. The results show how extreme values (worst values) for indicators of farmer satisfaction may undermine the adoption of sustainable intensification. We demonstrate that a pure forest conservation strategy leads to lower food production, but outperforms a sustainable intensification strategy that maintains food security. Pure forest conservation performed better, i.e., could secure higher farmer satisfaction, than sustainable intensification across a range of indicator groups. This suggests strong barriers to achieving sustainable intensification. Using agricultural subsidies breaks the dominance of pure forest conservation by enhancing the economic returns of sustainable intensification. We discuss the importance of access to labor and farmers’ preferences for the use of already cleared lands, which achieved the worst values under sustainable intensification and conclude that any assessment of land-use strategies requires careful consideration of uncertainty and extreme values.

Abstract:

Seasonally dry forests in the neotropics are heavily threatened by a combination of human disturbances and climate change; however, the severity of these threats is seldom contrasted. This study aims to quantify and compare the effects of deforestation and climate change on the natural spatial ranges of 17 characteristic tree species of southern Ecuador dry deciduous forests, which are heavily fragmented and support high levels of endemism as part of the Tumbesian ecoregion. We used 660 plant records to generate species distribution models and land-cover data to project species ranges for two time frames: a simulated deforestation scenario from 2008 to 2014 with native forest to anthropogenic land-use conversion, and an extreme climate change scenario (CCSM4.0, RCP 8.5) for 2050, which assumed zero change from human activities. To assess both potential threats, we compared the estimated annual rates of species loss (i.e., range shifts) affecting each species. Deforestation loss for all species averaged approximately 71 km2/year, while potential climate-attributed loss was almost 21 km2/year. Moreover, annual area loss rates due to deforestation were significantly higher than those attributed to climate-change (P < 0.01). However, projections into the future scenario show evidence of diverging displacement patterns, indicating the potential formation of novel ecosystems, which is consistent with other species assemblage predictions as result of climate change. Furthermore, we provide recommendations for management and conservation, prioritizing the most threatened species such as Albizia multiflora, Ceiba trichistandra, and Cochlospermum vitifolium.

Abstract:

The forests of South Ecuador have high conservation value because they are highly threatened, but also possess high diversity and endemism levels. However, as the process of conservation is inherently spatial, the little available information about the factors that promote vulnerability of these forests as well as the spatial distribution of the conservation targets have produced some conservation pitfalls. The main objective of this dissertation was to generate spatial information about the threats and biological values occurring in this region to prioritize areas for conservation. The second chapter analyzes the deforestation and fragmentation patterns in the region since the 1970s using aerial photographs and satellite images to identify areas with remaining forest, fronts of deforestation, annual deforestation rates and the dynamics in the composition and configuration of the landscape of South Ecuador. We recorded annual deforestation rates of 0.75% (1976 – 1989) and 2.86% (1989 – 2008) for two consecutive survey periods. Also, we found that South Ecuador is experiencing an ongoing fragmentation process due to an increase in the number of patches, a decrease in mean patch size and an increase in the isolation of forest fragments. This study also contributes to a better understanding of forest change dynamics in the tropics. We found that substantial portions of natural forests are being degraded or converted into pastures and that main fronts of deforestation are located in the lowest areas in the premontane evergreen forest. The third chapter describes the temporal and spatial patterns of human pressure, as it is one of the main factors that influence the effectiveness of conservation strategies. At local scale, we adapted at local scale the Human Footprint Index (HF) developed by Sanderson et al. (2002), to evaluate spatial changes in HF during a 26 year period at both landscape and ecosystem levels. This information allowed us to identify “hotspots of change” and the wildest areas remaining in order to evaluate how different human proxies contribute to HF and to demonstrate how effective the most important protected areas have been in reducing human pressure inside and outside their boundaries. The findings show a noticeable 4 increase in human pressure levels in South Ecuador and a progressive reduction in the wildest areas. We also identified that the important “hotspots of changes” are located in the western region and the Rio Zamora river basin. The most impacted vegetation types were seasonally dry forest and shrubland. Here, population density is the human proxy with the highest contribution to the observed patterns. Finally, we found that Podocarpus National Park has been partially effective in reducing human pressure inside and outside its borders. HF levels have increased inside and outside the boundaries of the protected area, but the human pressure was always lower than that observed in the surrounding landscape. The fourth chapter analyzes the patterns of alpha and beta diversity of endemic plant species to evaluate the congruence of both patterns and to identify areas with the highest diversity of endemic plants in order to prioritize areas for conservation. We found that hotspots of alpha diversity are concentrated along the Andes, but this diversity was only slightly congruent with beta diversity patterns of endemic plants mostly concentrated in the western and eastern escarpments of the Andes, and in the Coastal and Amazon cordilleras. We also found that approximately 40% of the areas with the highest alpha and beta diversities have already disappeared due to deforestation and that only 30% is under protection in Ecuador. Thus, we propose 12 potential areas with a high priority of conservation mostly located in South Ecuador to improve the representativeness and complementarity of the current reserve network. Finally, the fifth chapter synthesizes the principal findings of this thesis highlighting the implications for conservation and suggesting potential areas to be preserved based on human pressure levels, remaining forest and alpha and beta diversity patterns of endemic plants.

Abstract:

Human activities during the last decades provoked a notable reduction in global forest cover. Knowing that forest stands act as stock and sinks for carbon and other greenhouse gases, it is important to determine the existing forest cover at country level and to calculate annual deforestation rates. This work uses NOAAsatellite images in a resolution of 1 km x 1 km to classify the surface of continental Ecuador in “forest” – “non-forest” pixels and to estimate the annual deforestation rate from 1986 to 2001 as well as from 2001 to 2008. The method is based on a decision tree algorithm that includes different spectral bands of the NOAA-AVHRRsensor and additional topographic and meteorological parameters. The results show that the total forest cover of continental Ecuador was reduced from 48.1 % in 1986 to 36.8 % in 2008. The calculated annual deforestation rates indicate that forest reduction increased during the last decade. The most affected area is the Coastal Lowland, due to the enhanced population pressure, followed by the Amazon Basin, not only caused by the governmental supported oil and mining industry, but also due to the uncontrolled timber extraction. The Andean Highland has been less affected, because the major parts of this region were deforested before, during the Pre-Columbian-Era.

Abstract:

Deforestation and fragmentation are major components of global change; both are contributing to the rapid loss of tropical forest area with important implications for ecosystem functioning and biodiversity conservation. The forests of South Ecuador are a biological 'hotspot' due to their high diversity and endemism levels. We examined the deforestation and fragmentation patterns in this area of high conservation value using aerial photographs and Aster satellite scenes. The registered annual deforestation rates of 0.75% (1976–1989) and 2.86% (1989–2008) for two consecutive survey periods, the decreasing mean patch size and the increasing isolation of the forest fragments show that the area is under severe threat. Approximately 46% of South Ecuador's original forest cover had been converted by 2008 into pastures and other anthropogenic land cover types. We found that deforestation is more intense at lower elevations (premontane evergreen forest and shrubland) and that the deforestation front currently moves in upslope direction. Improved awareness of the spatial extent, dynamics and patterns of deforestation and forest fragmentation is urgently needed in biologically diverse areas like South Ecuador.

Abstract:

Soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) is to be predicted for 2050/2100 for a study area in the southern Ecuadorian Andes. SVAT models require information on land use/ land cover (LUC) as lower boundary conditions. Since the study area suffers from high deforestation rates, LUC cannot be assumed as staying constant with time. A spatially explicit land use/land cover change (LUCC) model is therefore needed for future SVAT prediction. The numbers of approaches of LUCC modelling are numerous. Difficulties are due to complex interactions of social and biophysical drivers of change. In this study a model of LUCC was built using information of past changes derived by remotely sensed data. Special focus was on forest development patterns. A training period of 14 years between 1987 and 2001 was chosen. Two LUC classifications were accomplished to Landsat data of the start and end date of this period. A change detection of the training period provided the basis for predictive LUCC modelling. Potential drivers for LUCC were applied to the model as GIS layers. The modelling procedure consisted of a combination of Markov chain analysis (MCA) for quantitative modelling and multi-layer perceptron (MLP) for revealing potential locations of change. A multi-objective land allocation (MOLA) served as final integration step. 14 LUC transitions were considered in the modelling procedure. Unconsidered LUC classes were assumed to stay constant in the future. The model results were maps of LUC for 2006, 2010 and afterwards for every 10 years up to 2100. An internal validation was performed with the training data. The results of the prediction were validated by comparing the model output of 2006 to an ASTER LUC classification of the same time. The validation methodology comprised crisp and fuzzy map comparison using Kappa statistics. The study area featured a deforestation of 13.61% in the training period. The model was able to explain deforestation in the training period 51% better than just by chance. The location of predicted deforestation reached a better than chance agreement of 30%. Predicted quantities of deforestation were 59% conforming with the reference. The validation of the prediction indicated the difficulty of modelling human impact on the ecosystem. Prospects and limitations of the model were identified with suggestions for future research tasks. The results of this study are assumed to present a good groundwork for future SVAT models.

Abstract:

Although vascular epiphytes contribute substantially to the biodiversity of tropical montane forests, it is unclear how their diversity and community composition is affected by forest alteration. We studied the response of vascular epiphyte assemblages to different intensities of land-use in a montane wet forest of northeastern Ecuador: (1) unmanaged mature forest; (2) mature forest with mid- and understorey opened for cattle grazing; and (3) isolated remnant trees in cattle pastures. The numbers of individuals and species of epiphytes per host tree did not differ significantly between land-use types, neither did total epiphyte species richness (n = 30 trees). However, total species richness of pteridophytes was signi&#64257;cantly lower on isolated remnant trees compared to unmanaged forest, whereas several taxa rich in xerotolerant species (Bromeliaceae, Orchidaceae, Piperaceae) exhibited the opposite trend. An analysis of floristic composition using ordination (NMS) and randomisation techniques (MRPP) showed that epiphyte assemblages on isolated remnant trees were significantly distinct from unmanaged forest while managed forest was intermediate between those two vegetation types. Ordination analysis further indicated reduced floristic heterogeneity in disturbed habitats. These results suggest considerable, rapid species turnover since land-use change 6 years prior to study, with pteridophytes being replaced by more xerotolerant taxa. We attribute this floristic turnover primarily to changes in microclimate towards higher levels of light and desiccation stress associated with forest disturbance. Our results support the notion that community composition offers a more sensitive indicator of human disturbance than species richness.