Environmental changes in biodiversity hotspot ecosystems of
South Ecuador: RESPonse and feedback effECTs (FOR2730)

Abstract:

Ensuring the integrity of the world’s forests is indispensable for mitigating climate change, combatting biodiversity loss, and protecting the livelihoods of rural communities. While many strategies have been developed to address deforestation across different geographic scales, measuring their impact against a fluctuating background of market-driven forest loss is notoriously challenging. In this article, we (1) asses deforestation in Ecuador using a dynamic, counterfactual baseline that excludes non-market factors, (2) identify periods of reduced and excess deforestation, and (3) assess the economic consequences of associated CO2 emissions using the social cost of carbon metric. We construct a counterfactual market-forces-only reference scenario by simulating heterogeneous profit-seeking agents making satisficing land-use allocation decisions under uncertainty. The model simulates a reference scenario for 2001–2022, a period encompassing dollarization, the beginning of a constitution granting inalienable rights to nature, and the launch of the largest payments for ecosystem services program in Ecuador’s history. On this period, total deforestation was approximately 20% lower than expected in a market-forces-only scenario (9540 vs.12,000 km2). The largest deviation occurred in 2001–2009, when observed deforestation was 43.6% lower than expected (3720 vs 6590 km2). From 2010 onwards, deforestation appears to be market-driven. We assess the economic value of avoided CO2 emissions at US $5.7 billion if the reduction is permanent, or US $3.1 billion considering a 1% risk of loss from 2022 onwards. We discuss contributing factors that likely shaped periods of reduced and excess deforestation and stress the need to use realistic baselines.

Abstract:

Reducing global forest losses is essential to mitigate climate change and its associated social costs. Multiple market and non-market factors can enhance or reduce forest loss. Here, to understand the role of non-market factors (for example, policies, climate anomalies or conflicts), we can compare observed trends to a reference (expected) scenario that excludes non-market factors. We define an expected scenario by simulating land-use decisions solely driven by market prices, productivities and presumably plausible decision-making. The land-use allocation model considers economic profits and uncertainties as incentives for forest conversion. We compare reference forest losses in Brazil, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia (2000–2019) with observed forest losses and assign differences from non-market factors. Our results suggest that non-market factors temporarily lead to lower-than-expected forest losses summing to 11.1 million hectares, but also to phases with higher-than-expected forest losses of 11.3 million hectares. Phases with lower-than-expected forest losses occurred earlier than those with higher-than-expected forest losses. The damages avoided by delaying emissions that would otherwise have occurred represent a social value of US$61.6 billion (as of the year 2000). This result shows the economic importance of forest conservation efforts in the tropics, even if reduced forest loss might be temporary and reverse over time.

Abstract:

Few land-allocation models consider the impact of off-farm income on tropical deforestation. We provide a concept to integrate off-farm income in a mechanistic multiple-objective land-allocation model, while distinguishing between farms with and without re-allocation of on-farm labor to obtain off-farm income. On farms with re-allocation of labor we found that off-farm income reduced farmers’ financial dependency on deforestation- related agricultural income leading to less tropical deforestation. The influence of off-farm income covered two aspects: availability of additional income and re-allocation of on-farm labor to off-farm activities. The labor effect tended to reduce deforestation slightly more than the income effect. On farms without re-allocation of on-farm labor we showed how farmers can use off-farm income to purchase additional labor to accelerate deforestation. Our study highlights the importance of considering off-farm income in land-use models to better understand, model and possibly curb tropical deforestation.

Abstract:

1. How to simultaneously combat biodiversity loss and maintain ecosystem functioning while improving human welfare remains an open question. Optimization approaches have proven helpful in revealing the trade-offs between multiple functions and goals provided by land-cover configurations. The R package optim- Landuse provides tools for easy and systematic applications of the robust multiobjective land-cover composition optimization approach of Knoke et al. (2016). 2. The package includes tools to determine the land-cover composition that best balances the multiple functions a landscape can provide, and tools for understanding and visualizing the reasoning behind these compromises. A tutorial based on a published dataset guides users through the application and highlights possible use-cases. 3. Illustrating the consequences of alternative ecosystem functions on the theoretically optimal landscape composition provides easily interpretable information for landscape modelling and decision-making. 4. The package opens the approach of Knoke et al. (2016) to the community of landscape modellers and planners and provides opportunities for straightforward systematic or batch applications.

Abstract:

Sustainable intensification of agricultural lands might reconcile the conservation of tropical forest with food production,but in-depth assessments considering uncertainty and extreme values are missing. Uncertainty prohibits mapping probabilities to potential future states or ranking these states in terms of their likelihood. This in turn hampers the assessment of possible decision outcomes. Here, we use simulations to investigate how uncertainty may influence the social acceptability of alternative land-use strategies to halt tropical deforestation (including sustainable intensification), based on indicators representing farmer satisfaction. The results show how extreme values (worst values) for indicators of farmer satisfaction may undermine the adoption of sustainable intensification. We demonstrate that a pure forest conservation strategy leads to lower food production, but outperforms a sustainable intensification strategy that maintains food security. Pure forest conservation performed better, i.e., could secure higher farmer satisfaction, than sustainable intensification across a range of indicator groups. This suggests strong barriers to achieving sustainable intensification. Using agricultural subsidies breaks the dominance of pure forest conservation by enhancing the economic returns of sustainable intensification. We discuss the importance of access to labor and farmers’ preferences for the use of already cleared lands, which achieved the worst values under sustainable intensification and conclude that any assessment of land-use strategies requires careful consideration of uncertainty and extreme values.

Abstract:

Tropical mountain ecosystems are threatened by climate and land-use changes. Their diversity and complexity make projec- tions how they respond to environmental changes challenging. A suitable way are trait-based approaches, by distinguishing between response traits that determine the resistance of species to environmental changes and efect traits that are relevant for species’ interactions, biotic processes, and ecosystem functions. The combination of those approaches with land surface models (LSM) linking the functional community composition to ecosystem functions provides new ways to project the response of ecosystems to environmental changes. With the interdisciplinary project RESPECT, we propose a research framework that uses a trait-based response-efect-framework (REF) to quantify relationships between abiotic conditions, the diversity of functional traits in communities, and associated biotic processes, informing a biodiversity-LSM. We apply the framework to a megadiverse tropical mountain forest. We use a plot design along an elevation and a land-use gradient to collect data on abiotic drivers, functional traits, and biotic processes. We integrate these data to build the biodiversity- LSM and illustrate how to test the model. REF results show that aboveground biomass production is not directly related to changing climatic conditions, but indirectly through associated changes in functional traits. Herbivory is directly related to changing abiotic conditions. The biodiversity-LSM informed by local functional trait and soil data improved the simulation of biomass production substantially. We conclude that local data, also derived from previous projects (platform Ecuador), are key elements of the research framework. We specify essential datasets to apply this framework to other mountain ecosystems.

Abstract:

Environmental studies regularly use the net present value (NPV) to value benefits and costs of projects. However, the NPV disregards whether the stream of net benefits is steady or volatile and ignores the distribution of net benefits among different groups of people. Here we test alternatives to NPV, building on two example cases: 1) We use discounted utility (DU) to evaluate land-use projects and calculate opportunity costs for avoided deforesta-tion. 2) We simulate decision-making on tropical deforestation, whereby we use multiple decision criteria to consider the distribution of net benefits between two groups: farmers and conservationists. Results show considerable differences in the ranking of projects between DU and NPV, when projects are not marginal. Compared to DU, NPV regularly overestimates the value of forest plantations. Moreover, NPV tends to overstate the opportunity costs of avoiding deforestation in terms of saved carbon emissions. Not accounting for the distribution of net benefits in optimizing land-use allocation leads to suboptimal simulated deforestation scenarios. We therefore suggest that future studies should either also use DU to value economic consequences of projects or that they use the NPV as only one among several socio-economic and ecological decision criteria.

Abstract:

Our knowledge about the structure and function of Andean forests at regional scales remains limited. Current initiatives to study forests over continental or global scales still have important geographical gaps, particularly in regions such as the tropical and subtropical Andes. In this study, we assessed patterns of structure and tree species diversity along ~ 4000 km of latitude and ~ 4000 m of elevation range in Andean forests. We used the Andean Forest Network (Red de Bosques Andinos, https://redbosques.condesan.org/) database which, at present, includes 491 forest plots (totaling 156.3 ha, ranging from 0.01 to 6 ha) representing a total of 86,964 identified tree stems � 10 cm diameter at breast height belonging to 2341 identified species, 584 genera and 133 botanical families. Tree stem density and basal area increases with elevation while species richness decreases. Stem density and species richness both decrease with latitude. Subtropical forests have distinct tree species composition compared to those in the tropical region. In addition, floristic similarity of subtropical plots is between 13 to 16% while similarity between tropical forest plots is between 3% to 9%. Overall, plots ~ 0.5-ha or larger may be preferred for describing patterns at regional scales in order to avoid plot size effects. We highlight the need to promote collaboration and capacity building among researchers in the Andean region (i.e., South-South cooperation) in order to generate and synthesize information at regional scale.

Abstract:

Abstract Conversion of tropical forests is among the primary causes of global environmental change. The loss of their important environmental services has prompted calls to integrate ecosystem services (ES) in addition to socio-economic objectives in decision-making. To test the effect of accounting for both ES and socio-economic objectives in land-use decisions, we develop a new dynamic approach to model deforestation scenarios for tropical mountain forests. We integrate multi-objective optimization of land allocation with an innovative approach to consider uncertainty spaces for each objective. These uncertainty spaces account for potential variability among decision-makers, who may have different expectations about the future. When optimizing only socio-economic objectives, the model continues the past trend in deforestation (1975–2015) in the projected land-use allocation (2015–2070). Based on indicators for biomass production, carbon storage, climate and water regulation, and soil quality, we show that considering multiple ES in addition to the socio-economic objectives has heterogeneous effects on land-use allocation. It saves some natural forest if the natural forest share is below 38%, and can stop deforestation once the natural forest share drops below 10%. For landscapes with high shares of forest (38%–80% in our study), accounting for multiple ES under high uncertainty of their indicators may, however, accelerate deforestation. For such multifunctional landscapes, two main effects prevail: (a) accelerated expansion of diversified non-natural areas to elevate the levels of the indicators and (b) increased landscape diversification to maintain multiple ES, reducing the proportion of natural forest. Only when accounting for vascular plant species richness as an explicit objective in the optimization, deforestation was consistently reduced. Aiming for multifunctional landscapes may therefore conflict with the aim of reducing deforestation, which we can quantify here for the first time. Our findings are relevant for identifying types of landscapes where this conflict may arise and to better align respective policies.

Abstract:

Bio-economic modelling has become a useful tool for anticipating the outcomes of policies and technologies before their implementation. Advances in mathematical programming have made it possible to build more comprehensive models. In an overview of recent studies about bio-economic models applied to land-use problems in agriculture and forestry,we evaluated howaspects such as uncertainty,multiple objective functions, system dynamics and time have been incorporated into models. We found that single objective models were more frequently applied at the farm level, while multiple objective modelling has been applied to meet concerns at the landscape level. Among the objectives, social aspects are seldom represented in allmodels, when being compared to economic and environmental aspects. The integration of uncertainty is occasionally a topic, while stochastic approaches are more frequently applied than non-stochastic robust methods. Mostmultiple-objectivemodels do not integrate uncertainty or sequential decision making. Static approaches continue to be more recurrent than truly dynamic models. Even though integrating multiple aspects may enhance our understanding of a system; it involves a tradeoff between complexity and robustness of the results obtained. Land-use models have to address this balance between complexity and robustness in order to evolve towards robust multiple-objective spatial optimization as a prerequisite to achieve sustainability goals.

Abstract:

In 201 3, the “Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Monitoring and Research in South Ecuador” (www.TropicalMountainForest.org) was launched as a knowledge transfer program in the biodiversity hotspot of the southern Ecuadorian Andes, jointly funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG) and Ecuadorian non-university partners. One of the overall aims of the transdisciplinary program is to design science-directed recommendations for an ecologically sustainable, economically profitable and socially compatible use of the mainly rural land. The second major goal of the program is the development of functional indicators that are crucial for the monitoring of impacts of environmental change on the ecosystem and its functions. They encompass abiotic, abiotic-biotic and biotic-biotic interrelations, and are sensitive - though to different extent - to subtle changes in the environment. Therefore, it is not only the interaction per se, which has to be examined. In addition to that the quantification of the response to certain environmental stressors is needed. Representing the fundament of ecosystem functioning, biodiversity as such or certain functional taxa can be monitored for an assessment of the ecosystem’s state. Important further criteria for the selection of an indicator are general applicability, easiness of handling and stability against pitfalls. This book “Landscape Restoration, Sustainable Use and Cross-scale Monitoring of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functions: A Science-directed Approach for South Ecuador” presents in its first part a compilation of sustainable land use concepts that have been proven for application in the Provinces Loja and Zamora Chinchipe and beyond, given comparable environmental conditions. The second part describes functional indicators as well as their development, monitoring and application. Both parts start with introductory chapters on the major aims of the respective transdisciplinary program, followed by contributions showing how land use concepts can be used to achieve sustainable management and ecosystem services, as well as how functional indicators can be used to assess and monitor the stability of biodiversity and ecosystem functions. It should be stressed that this book has not the aim to present only a scientific summary of the developed systems. Instead, it targets on stakeholders as our non-university partners and beyond which are in charge of environmental planning and ecosystem function surveillance in Ecuador. In the manner of a technical handbook, it gives a comprehensible introduction to the land use option or the indicator, followed by hints how to apply, implement and assess the developed systems. The book is and was complementing our three pillars of capacity building which also includes stakeholder workshops on the developed land use options and indicators, and demonstration plots in the field. With this book the authors highly acknowledge the generous funding of the research by the German Science Foundation (DFG) and the logistic, administrative and practical support by the foundation Naturaleza y Cultura Internacional (Loja and Del Mar). Such research requires also fruitful collaboration with local academic institutions, the Universidad Tecnica Particular de Loja, the Universidad Nacional de Loja, the Universidad de Cuenca, the Universidad de Azuay, and the local weather service INAMHI. These partnerships were a great experience in capacity building on both sides, as evidenced by a number of academic degrees obtained and by numerous joint publications. The authors are also grateful for the support of our nonuniversity research partners beyond NCI, namely ETAPA EP (Empresa Pública Municipal de Telecomunicaciones, Agua potable, lcantarillado y Saneamiento de Cuenca- Ecuador), the Gobierno Municipal de Zamora and the regional water fund FORAGUA (Fondo Regional del Agua). Further, sincere thanks are owed to the Ecuadorian Ministry of the Environment (MAE) for permission to conduct research in South Ecuador. The Editors

Abstract:

Economic approaches based on the probabilistic framework were applied to support land use management in Ecuador. Compensations to prevent further land conversion resulted lower when a concave utility function was used. Diversification applied to risky conventional farming showed that sustainable options are suited for portfolios if correlation between returns is kept low; in every case at least two options constituted the optimal combinations. Thus, despite limitations of bio-economic models, they constitute a reliable tool for normative orientations at the farm level.

Abstract:

Forest recovery on disturbed areas is of special significance in the Ecuadorian Andes, where deforestation is a serious problem. Natural diachronic succession was evaluated on three large plots or sites, differing in their land use and vegetation composition, one is dominated by grass species on an abandoned pasture (Pasture site), the other two are post-fire vegetation dominated by bracken (Bracken site) and various shrubs (Shrub site). Additionally, we assessed the effectiveness of manual removal of competitive herbaceous species to accelerate forest recovery. Monitoring was done in 2003, 2005 and 2007 on 48 subplots of 116 m2 each recording species richness and woody-species density. Results showed that the Pasture site demonstrated a competitive effect of exotic grasses on woody species recruitment with much lower species recruitment and density, suggesting serious inhibition of natural forest regeneration and an unclear successional trajectory. The Bracken and Shrub sites became significantly similar floristically and there is evidence for a marked facilitation of woody plant recruitment correlated with light availability on the ground. Both sites showed characteristics of classic succession, with Shrub showing a higher species richness and density while late-successional species are poorly represented on the Bracken site. However, NMDS ordination using species density showed that the two trajectories may not be converging towards a common ‘‘final state’’. Manual weeding was ineffective for accelerating forest recovery. These results suggest that the main limiting factor for the recruitment of woody species on the Pasture site is strong grass competition and must be addressed before seed availability, while seed availability seems to be theconstraining factor for Bracken and Shrub site development, thus direct seeding or planting may be effective in accelerating forest recovery.

Abstract:

Increasing land-use conflicts call for the development of land-use systems that reconcile agricultural production with the provisioning of multiple ecosystem services, including climate change mitigation. Agroforestry has been suggested as a global solution to increase land-use efficiency, while reducing environmental impacts and economic risks for farmers. Past research has often focused on comparing tree-crop combinations with agricultural monocultures, but agroforestry has seldom been systematically compared to other forms of land-use diversification, including a farm mosaic. This form of diversification mixes separate parcels of different land uses within the farm. The objective of this study was to develop a modelling approach to compare the performance of the agroforestry and farm mosaic diversification strategies, accounting for tree-crop interaction effects and economic and climate uncertainty. For this purpose, Modern Portfolio Theory and risk simulation were coupled with the process-based biophysical simulation model WaNuLCAS 4.0. For an example application, we used data from a field trial in Panama. The results show that the simulated agroforestry systems (Taungya, alley cropping and border planting) could outperform a farm mosaic approach in terms of cumulative production and return. Considering market and climate uncertainty, agroforestry showed an up to 21% higher economic return at the same risk level (i.e. standard deviation of economic returns). Farm compositions with large shares of land allocated to maize cultivation were also more severely affected by an increasing drought frequency in terms of both risks and returns. Our study demonstrates that agroforestry can be an economically efficient diversification strategy, but only if the design allows for economies of scope, beneficial interactions between trees and crops and higher income diversification compared to a farm mosaic. The modelling approach can make an important contribution to support land-use decisions at the farm level and reduce land-use conflicts at the landscape level.

Abstract:

Postulating that megadiverse forests are more profitable than monocultures lacks economic evidence and may put conservation incentives at risk. Letter in Response to Liang et al. published in Science on October 14

Abstract:

High landscape diversity is assumed to increase the number and level of ecosystem services. However, the interactions between ecosystem service provision, disturbance and landscape composition are poorly understood. Here we present a novel approach to include uncertainty in the optimization of land allocation for improving the provision of multiple ecosystem services. We refer to the rehabilitation of abandoned agricultural lands in Ecuador including two types of both afforestation and pasture rehabilitation, together with a succession option. Our results show that high compositional landscape diversity supports multiple ecosystem services (multifunction effect). This implicitly provides a buffer against uncertainty. Our work shows that active integration of uncertainty is only important when optimizing single or highly correlated ecosystem services and that the multifunction effect on landscape diversity is stronger than the uncertainty effect. This is an important insight to support a land-use planning based on ecosystem services.

Abstract:

Due to ongoing conversion of the dry forests of southern Ecuador to pasture and farmland, they are among the most threatened ecosystems globally. This study explored how to control deforestation in the region while securing the livelihoods of local people through land-use diversification and compensation payments. Results are based on interview data collected from 163 households near the Laipuna Reserve in southern Ecuador. Combining modern financial theory and von Thünen’s theory of land distribution, we optimized land-use shares of two types of forest management (banning and allowing goat grazing) and three crops (maize, beans and peanuts). Land-use portfolios were calculated for four different farm sizes, represented by the quartiles of the farm size distribution. We found that goat grazing was important for diversifying farm income and reducing financial risks for all farm sizes. However, forest area would still be converted to cropland under the current financial coefficients. The amount of compensation needed to maintain current forest cover was calculated for two different scenarios: 1) banning goat grazing and 2) allowing forest use where the farmer could decide how much forest area would be allocated to each land-use option. Offering financial compensation for forest preservation (Scenario 1) reduced deforestation but would still lead to a conversion of at least 23?% of current forests to croplands. Allowing forest use in a compensation scheme (Scenario 2) would help retain 96?% of the current forest cover, with 29?% of this forest being set aside for conservation. This scenario would suppose annual payments ranging from $4 to $89 ha-1, with the largest farms requiring the lowest payments. In contrast, banning goats from the forest would even risk losing the entire forest area to cropland, if compensation fell below $50 ha-1 yr-1. We conclude that coupling productive options with secure compensation payments and developing policies that support land-use diversification and sustainable use of forest resources, will be most effective in conserving the Ecuadorian dry forest.

Abstract:

The theory of portfolio selection has often been applied to help improving decisions on the environment. The information required to apply this theory includes data on covariance of the uncertain returns between all combinations of the economic options and normally distributed returns. As it may be problematic to fulfil all data requirements and assumptions, the paper proposes a variant of robust portfolio optimization as an alternative. It considers future uncer-tainties in a non-stochastic fashion by means of possible deviations from the nominal return of land-use alternatives. The maximization of the economic return of the land-use portfolio is conditional to meeting an inclusive set of constraints. These demand that the same, whenever possible high, proportion of a required return threshold is achieved by means of the robust solution for each deviation scenario considered. The paper compares the land-use portfolios derived non-stochastically with portfolios generated by classical stochastic mean-variance op-timization. Based on data for eight agricultural crops typical for the Ecuadorian lowlands the results show that, depending on the deviation scenario assumed, the robust portfolios show a greater Shannon index compared to classical portfolios. For the same standard deviation of returns (derived through the classical sum of all covariances) the robust portfolios show no more than 2-5% loss in economic return in most cases. Occasionally, the loss has been higher, up to 20%. In this case the Shannon index was about 2.5 times higher compared with that of the conventional portfolio. The highly diverse portfolio achieved a much better protection against low relative performance. The results obtained show that the non-stochastic derivation of land-use portfolios is a good alternative to the classical stochastic model, whenever eco-nomic information is scarce.

Abstract:

Organic farming is a more environmentally friendly form of land use than conventional agriculture. However, recent studies point out production tradeoffs that often prevent the adoption of such practices by farmers. Our study shows with the example of organic banana production in Ecuador that economic tradeoffs depend much on the approach of the analysis. We test, if organic banana should be included in economic land-use portfolios, which indicate how much of the land is provided for which type of land-use. We use time series data for productivity and prices over 30 years to compute the economic return (as annualized net present value) and its volatility (with standard deviation as risk measure) for eight crops to derive land-use portfolios for different levels of risk, which maximize economic return. We find that organic banana is included in land-use portfolios for almost every level of accepted risk with proportions from 1% to maximally 32%, even if the same high uncertainty as for conventional banana is simulated for organic banana. A more realistic, lower simulated price risk increased the proportion of organic banana substantially to up to 57% and increased annual economic returns by up to US$ 187 per ha. Under an assumed integration of both markets, for organic and conventional banana, simulated by an increased coefficient of correlation of economic return from organic and conventional banana (? up to +0.7), organic banana holds significant portions in the land-use portfolios tested only, if a low price risk of organic banana is considered. We conclude that uncertainty is a key issue for the adoption of organic banana. As historic data support a low price risk for organic banana compared to conventional banana, Ecuadorian farmers should consider organic banana as an advantageous land-use option in their land-use portfolios.

Abstract:

Conflicts between satisfying the growing global demand for food and energy and simultaneously preserving natural ecosystems have spurred renewed debate about how to optimise future land use. This study reviews the role of forests and forest management within these proposed land-use strategies and reveals that discussions about future management of forest and agricultural lands take place largely exclusive of one another. Based on these results, a land-use concept is proposed in which sustainable agricultural intensification is paired with land-use diversification as a risk reduction strategy and complemented by productive restoration and compensation payments for forest conservation. Improving afforestation and agroforestry practices on degraded lands and investigating effects of diversification on the landscape scale are identified as important objectives for future interdisciplinary research. Considering forests as part of a comprehensive land-use portfolio will be vital in order to help strengthen links and ease conflicts between forest and agricultural land uses.

Abstract:

Increasing demands for livelihood resources in tropical rural areas have led to progressive clearing of biodiverse natural forests. Restoration of abandoned farmlands could counter this process. However, as aims and modes of restoration differ in their ecological and socio-economic value, the assessment of achievable ecosystem functions and bene?ts requires holistic investigation. Here we combine the results from multidisciplinary research for a unique assessment based on a normalization of 23 ecological, economic and social indicators for four restoration options in the tropical Andes of Ecuador. A comparison of the outcomes among afforestation with native alder or exotic pine, pasture restoration with either low-input or intense management and the abandoned status quo shows that both variants of afforestation and intense pasture use improve the ecological value, but low-input pasture does not. Economic indicators favour either afforestation or intense pasturing. Both Mestizo and indigenous Saraguro settlers are more inclined to opt for afforestation.

Abstract:

Rural households in agricultural economies are vulnerable to several environmental risks such as fires, floods, and droughts that may affect their productivity in whole or in part. These hazards are especially relevant in developing countries where farmers have few or no access to traditional risk-transfer techniques, such as insurance and finance, and where low governmental investments in rural infrastructure, risk assessment techniques, or early warning systems makes the aftermath of such hazards more expensive and results in slower recovery for those who are affected. In this paper, we use historical satellite data (Terra) of burned areas in South America to fit a semiparametric spatial model, based on kernel smoothing and on a nonlinear relationship between average time between events and damage, to assess the environmental hazard affecting the land’s productivity. The results were twofold: first, we were able to develop a spatial assessment of fire hazard, and second, we were able to evaluate how much a farmer may lose in terms of productivity per hectare due to the environmental hazard. The methodology may be easily adapted to other world regions; to different environmental hazards such as floods, windbreak, windthrow, or related land-use changes; or to integrate various environmental hazards simultaneously, as long as they can be monitored via remote sensing (e.g., satellite imagery, aerial photographs, etc).

Abstract:

Approaches to reconciling food production with climatic and environmental protection often require agricultural intensification. The production of more food per unit of agricultural land through "sustainable intensification" is intended to enable the protection of natural ecosystems elsewhere (land sparing). However, there are problems associated with agricultural intensification; such as soil erosion, eutrophication or pollution of water bodies with chemicals, landscape homogenization and loss of biodiversity; for which solutions have not yet been found. Reuse of abandoned agricultural lands – which are abundant throughout the world – to address the rising demand for food is a potentially important alternative, which up to now has been widely ignored. To test the power of this alternative, equilibrium economic land allocation to various land-use practices by risk-avoiding tropical farmers in Ecuador was simulated. The reestablishment of pastures on abandoned cattle lands lowered prices for pasture products, and also triggered conversion of existing pasture into cropland. The resulting land-use change increased total annual food production in a moderate scenario from the current level of 17.8–23.1 petacalories (10^15 calories), which amounted to a production increase of 30%. At the same time, there was a 19% reduction in the amount of payments to farmers required to preserve tropical forests – one of the world’s greatest terrestrial carbon stores.