Urbich, I.; Bendix, J. & Müller, R. (2019): <b>The Seamless Solar Radiation (SESORA) Forecast for Solar Surface Irradiance—Method and Validation</b>. <i>Remote Sensing</i> <b>11</b>(21), 2576.
Resource Description
Title:
The Seamless Solar Radiation (SESORA) Forecast for Solar Surface Irradiance—Method and Validation
FOR816dw ID:
344
Publication Date:
2019-11-04
License and Usage Rights:
Resource Owner(s):
Individual:
Isabel Urbich
Contact:
email:
webmaster <at> lcrs.de
Individual:
Jörg Bendix
Contact:
email:
bendix <at> staff.uni-marburg.de
Deutschhausstraße 12
Room No. 02 A 48
35032 Marburg
Faculty of Geography
Germany
Individual:
Richard Müller
Contact:
email:
webmaster <at> lcrs.de
Abstract:
Due to the integration of fluctuating weather-dependent energy sources into the grid<br/>
the importance of weather and power forecasts grows constantly. This paper describes the<br/>
implementation of a short-term forecast of solar surface irradiance named SESORA (seamless sola<br/>
radiation). It is based on the the optical flow of effective cloud albedo and available for Germany<br/>
and parts of Europe. After the clouds are shifted by applying cloud motion vectors, solar radiation i<br/>
calculated with SPECMAGIC NOW(Spectrally Resolved Mesoscale Atmospheric Global Irradianc<br/>
Code), which computes the global irradiation spectrally resolved from satellite imagery. Due to the<br/>
high spatial and temporal resolution of satellite measurements, solar radiation can be forecasted<br/>
from 15 min up to 4 h or more with a spatial resolution of 0.05. An extensive validation of thi<br/>
short-term forecast is presented in this study containing two different validations based on eithe<br/>
area or stations. The results are very promising as the mean RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) of thi<br/>
study equals 59W/m2 (absolute bias = 42W/m2) after 15 min, reaches its maximum of 142W/m<br/>
(absolute bias = 97W/m2) after 165 min, and slowly decreases after that due to the setting of the sun<br/>
After a brief description of the method itself and the method of the validation the results will be<br/>
presented and discussed.
Keywords:
| MSG-SEVIRI | Solar energy |
Literature type specific fields:
ARTICLE
Journal:
Remote Sensing
Volume:
11
Issue:
21
Page Range:
2576
Metadata Provider:
Individual:
Jörg Bendix
Contact:
email:
bendix <at> staff.uni-marburg.de
Deutschhausstraße 12
Room No. 02 A 48
35032 Marburg
Faculty of Geography
Germany
