Laboratory for
Climatology and Remote Sensing

Abstract:

Due to the integration of fluctuating weather-dependent energy sources into the grid the importance of weather and power forecasts grows constantly. This paper describes the implementation of a short-term forecast of solar surface irradiance named SESORA (seamless sola radiation). It is based on the the optical flow of effective cloud albedo and available for Germany and parts of Europe. After the clouds are shifted by applying cloud motion vectors, solar radiation i calculated with SPECMAGIC NOW(Spectrally Resolved Mesoscale Atmospheric Global Irradianc Code), which computes the global irradiation spectrally resolved from satellite imagery. Due to the high spatial and temporal resolution of satellite measurements, solar radiation can be forecasted from 15 min up to 4 h or more with a spatial resolution of 0.05. An extensive validation of thi short-term forecast is presented in this study containing two different validations based on eithe area or stations. The results are very promising as the mean RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) of thi study equals 59W/m2 (absolute bias = 42W/m2) after 15 min, reaches its maximum of 142W/m (absolute bias = 97W/m2) after 165 min, and slowly decreases after that due to the setting of the sun After a brief description of the method itself and the method of the validation the results will be presented and discussed.

Abstract:

Knowledge of cloud properties such as cloud effective radius (aef) and optical thickness (?) is essential to understand their role in the dynamic radiation budget and climate change. The Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Instrument (SEVIRI) on board Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) with its high temporal resolution (15 min), permits a quasi-continuous monitoring of the evolution of cloud properties. This has motivated the adaptation of the SLALOM (SimpLe Approximations for cLOudy Media) algorithm, a semi-analytical cloud property retrieval technique to MSG SEVIRI. The optical properties retrieved by SLALOM are compared against the well known and validated NASA MODIS cloud property product (MODIS 06) as well as the cloud optical depth product (2B-TAU) of CloudSat. The results are shown over the North Atlantic and over the European continent with the intention of determine the relative accuracy between SLALOM and the other retrievals. Over the North Atlantic, SLALOM-based cloud properties retrieved from SEVIRI datasets show a good agreement with the MODIS 06 product with correlation coefficients of 0.93 (?) and 0.82 (aef). The largest deviations were found in less homogeneous cloud areas that are characterized by broken clouds and toward the cloud borders. Moreover, SLALOM optical thickness values are well within the range of corresponding CloudSat 2B-TAU optical thickness values which can be found within a SEVIRI pixel, except for ? < 5 where SLALOM tends to overestimate ?. Despite the different sensor characteristics and viewing geometries, the retrieved cloud properties compare very well. Over Europe, the evaluation between SLALOM and MODIS 06 showed larger differences. We attribute this to (a) uncertainties related to the surface albedo which is treated differently in the algorithms and is based on different albedo maps and (b) inhomogeneities of clouds which exhibit quite complex structures particularly over land. The latter are detected on different scales by MODIS and SEVIRI because of their different spatial resolutions. Given the demonstrated accuracy of SLALOM using MSG SEVIRI data there is a wide spread of potential applications.

Abstract:

The present study aims to investigate the potential of the random forests ensemble classification and regression technique to improve rainfall rate assignment during day, night and twilight (resulting in 24-hour precipitation estimates) based on cloud physical properties retrieved from Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) data. Random forests (RF) models contain a combination of characteristics that make them well suited for its application in precipitation remote sensing. One of the key advantages is the ability to capture non-linear association of patterns between predictors and response which becomes important when dealing with complex non-linear events like precipitation. Due to the deficiencies of existing optical rainfall retrievals, the focus of this study is on assigning rainfall rates to precipitating cloud areas in connection with extra-tropical cyclones in mid-latitudes including both convective and advective-stratiform precipitating cloud areas. Hence, the rainfall rates are assigned to rain areas previously identified and classified according to the precipitation formation processes. As predictor variables water vapor-IR differences and IR cloud top temperature are used to incorporate information on cloud top height. ?T8.7–10.8 and ?T10.8–12.1 are considered to supply information about the cloud phase. Furthermore, spectral SEVIRI channels (VIS0.6, VIS0.8, NIR1.6) and cloud properties (cloud effective radius, cloud optical thickness) are used to include information about the cloud water path during daytime, while suitable combinations of temperature differences (?T3.9–10.8, ?T3.9–7.3) are considered during night-time. The development of the rainfall rate retrieval technique is realised in three steps. First, an extensive tuning study is carried out to customise each of the RF models. The daytime, night-time and twilight precipitation events have to be treated separately due to differing information content about the cloud properties between the different times of day. Secondly, the RF models are trained using the optimum values for the number of trees and number of randomly chosen predictor variables found in the tuning study. Finally, the final RF models are used to predict rainfall rates using an independent validation data set and the results are validated against co-located rainfall rates observed by a ground radar network. To train and validate the model, the radar-based RADOLAN RW product from the German Weather Service (DWD) is used which provides area-wide gauge-adjusted hourly precipitation information. Regarding the overall performance, as indicated by the coefficient of determination (Rsq), hourly rainfall rates show already a good correlation with Rsq = 0.5 (day and night) and Rsq = 0.48 (twilight) between the satellite and radar based observations. Higher temporal aggregation leads to better agreement. Rsq rises to 0.78 (day), 0.77 (night) and 0.75 (twilight) for 8-h interval. By comparing day, night and twilight performance it becomes evident that daytime precipitation is generally predicted best by the model. Twilight and night-time predictions are generally less accurate but only by a small margin. This may due to the smaller number of predictor variables during twilight and night-time conditions as well as less favourable radiative transfer conditions to obtain the cloud parameters during these periods. However, the results show that with the newly developed method it is possible to assign rainfall rates with good accuracy even on an hourly basis. Furthermore, the rainfall rates can be assigned during day, night and twilight conditions which enables the estimation of rainfall rates 24 h day.